AN ALTAR IN THE WORLD: A LENTEN BIBLE STUDY AT BROUGHTON ST, MARY'S CHURCH EDINBURGH

What is saving my life now is the conviction that there is no spiritual treasure to be found apart from the bodily experiences of human life on earth. My life depends on engaging the most ordinary physical activities with the most exquisite attention I can give them. My life depends on ignoring all touted distinctions between the secular and the sacred, the physical and the spiritual, the body and the soul. What is saving my life now is becoming more fully human, trusting that there is no way to God apart from real life in the real world.

                                                               READING GUIDE

                          

                                                          Barbara Brown Taylor

                                                                  WIKI

Taylor was born on September 21, 1951, in Lafayette, Indiana. She did her undergraduate studies at Emory University where she graduated in 1973. She then went on to study at Yale Divinity School, where she graduated in 1976. She was ordained in 1984,^[1] and became the rector of Grace-Calvary Episcopal Church (Episcopal Diocese of Atlanta) in Clarkesville, Georgia, in 1992.^[4] She later left parish ministry and became a full-time professor at Piedmont College in Demorest, Georgia, and an adjunct professor of Christian spirituality at Columbia Theological Seminary in Decatur, Georgia.^[5] She taught world religions and exposed her mainly Christian students to other faiths so they could better understand how various groups worship.^[5]

In 1996, she was named one of the twelve "most effective" preachers in the English-speaking world by Baylor University.^[6] She was awarded the 1998 Emory Medal by the Emory Alumni Association of Emory University for her distinguished achievement in education.^[7] In February 2009, Barbara Brown Taylor led the second annual Piedmont College religion conference in Athens, Georgia.^[8] Taylor was also the keynote speaker at the conference in previous years.^[9] In addition, Taylor gave the 2009 Annual Buechner Lecture at the Buechner Institute at King University. She has written twelve books on faith and spirituality.^[1][10] In February 2010, days before Piedmont College's religion conference, Taylor ranked in the top ten most influential living preachers in a poll conducted by the Southern Baptist Convention.^[11]

    

                                                 

                                       

                                                             REVIEW

 A field guide to spiritual practices which can lend meaning and richness to our lives.

Book Review by Frederic and Mary Ann Brussat

TwitterFacebookTaylor was born on September 21, 1951, in 
Print            

Barbara Brown Taylor spent 15 years in parish ministry and was named one of the 12 most effective preachers in the English-speaking world by Baylor University in 1996. She became a professor of religion at Piedmont College in 1998 and also teaches spirituality at Columbia Theological Seminary. Still a priest in the Episcopal Church, she lives on a working farm in rural north Georgia with her husband. Taylor calls this book a field guide to spiritual practices which can lend meaning and richness to our lives. In a poetic and profound passage, she sets the stage for what follows:

"What is saving my life now is the conviction that there is no spiritual treasure to be found apart from the bodily experiences of human life on earth. My life depends on engaging the most ordinary physical activities with the most exquisite attention I can give them. My life depends on ignoring all touted distinctions between the secular and the sacred, the physical and the spiritual, the body and the soul. What is saving my life now is becoming more fully human, trusting that there is no way to God apart from real life in the real world."

Whereas many spiritual seekers spend a lot of time and energy on quests that take them far from home, Taylor suggests that we have all we need in the everyday activities of our lives. She presents formal and informal spiritual practices to use as a spur to deepening our humanity and broadening our connection with others. Here are the chapters in the book to give an idea of what is covered here:

• The Practice of Waking Up to God (Vision)
• The Practice of Paying Attention (Reverence)
• The Practice of Wearing Skin (Incarnation)
• The Practice of Walking on the Earth (Groundedness)
• The Practice of Getting Lost (Wilderness)
• The Practice of Encountering Others (Community)
• The Practice of Living with Purpose (Vocation)
• The Practice of Saying No (Sabbath)
• The Practice of Carrying Water (Physical Labor)
• The Practice of Feeling Pain (Breakthrough)
• The Practice of Being Present to God (Prayer)
• The Practice of Pronouncing Blessings (Benediction)

Along the way, Taylor shares many colorful vignettes from her own life and ponders the experiences of some well-known Biblical characters. We appreciated her practices of praying while standing naked in front a full-length mirror, making eye contact with a cashier at a grocery store, and blessing people sitting at the departure gate at an airport. One of our favorite lines in the book is this one: "Hanging laundry on the line offers you the chance to fly prayer flags disguised as bath towels and underwear."

Everyday spirituality is a path that enables us to be totally present in all that we do. Spiritual practices such as keeping the Sabbath, walking meditation, and prayer have been central to many of the world's religions. We agree with Taylor's conclusion: "Even now, purposeful return to these practices has the power to save religions that have just about run out of breath."

TOM'S NOTES:

pantheism, the doctrine that the universe conceived of as a whole is God and, conversely, that there is no God but the combined substance, forces, and laws that are manifested in the existing universe.

While I don't personally believe in pantheism, I regard the Creator God as the scientific entity that creates everything within the Universe, with all the baggage that comes with.

Bayesian Model Choice: AIC, BIC, BIC*, DIC or Whatever?

                              

         COPYRIGHT: TOM LEONARD. EDINBURGH SCOTLAND. JANUARY 2002

THIS IS MY SCRAPBOOK. It contains background information for my 2022 research project with

    Professor John S.J,. Hsu (UCSB)

     Gelman,Hwang and, Vehtari  et al (2013)

             A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification (Akaike, 1974)    

                             Number 2 is chosen arbitrarily

               No proper justification for magical number 2 in early papers .Silly Bayesian attempt by Akaike (1978) Approximated by DIC in many cases. Therefore DIC also lacks theoretical justification

              Best validation of AIC is by asymptotic equivalence with cross-validation (which is itself arbitrary)

                                    See Stone (1979)                            

    MEMORIES OF MERVYN STONE (1932-2021)

Schwarz's BIC (1978) is unconvincing, as are Bayes factors (Unintuitive . Sensitivity problems w.r.t prior    Lindley's 1957 paradox. Bayes factors can favour a model when it is refuted at any sensible significance level) Asymptotical derivation open to criticiism

Schwarx's note has been cited almost 50000 times in literature.

                   DID TURING INVENT THE BAYES FACTOR?

Jack Good was a disciple of Alan Turing at Bletchley Park, and Good has emphasized Turing’s use of the Bayes factor in several publications. However, the claim that Turing ought to be credited with the invention of the Bayes factor appears to be flat-out wrong, for at least two reasons. As stated in Etz & Wagenmakers (2017):

“When the hypotheses in question are simple point hypotheses, the Bayes factor reduces to a likelihood ratio, a method of measuring evidential strength which dates back as far as Johann Lambert in 1760 (Lambert and DiLaura, 2001) and Daniel Bernoulli in 1777 (Kendall et al., 1961; see Edwards, 1974 for a historical review); C. S. Peirce had specifically called it a
measure of ‘weight of evidence’ as far back as 1878 (Peirce, 1878; see Good, 1979). Alan Turing also independently developed likelihood ratio tests using Bayes’ theorem, deriving decibans to describe the intensity of the evidence, but this approach was again based on
the comparison of simple versus simple hypotheses. For example, Turing used decibans when decrypting the Enigma codes to infer the identity of a given letter in German military communications during World War II (Turing, 1941/2012). As Good (1979) notes, Jeffreys’s Bayes factor approach to testing hypotheses “is especially ‘Bayesian’ [because] either [hypothesis] is composite” (p. 393).

                 Posterior Bayes Factors (Murray Aitken)

Aitkin, M. (1991). Posterior Bayes factors (with discussion) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 53, 111–142.

 Aitkin, M. (1997). The calibration of P-values, posterior Bayes factors and the AIC from the posterior distribution of the likelihood, Statistics and Computing, 7, 253–261. 

Aitkin, M. (2010). Statistical Inference. An Integrated Bayesian/Likelihood Approach, Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, FL. Aitkin, M., R.J. Boys, and T. Chadwick (2005). 

Bayesian point null hypothesis testing via the posterior likelihood ratio, Statistics and Computing, 15, 217– 230.

               We propose Inferential approach that compares entire posterior densities of the log-   

           likelihoods . In many cases these

               are approximated by

                          L   =   Maximised log-likelihood  - chi-squared variate with p degrees of freedom                         where

              p   denotes number of unknown parameters in model 

                                 But expectation subtracts 1/2 and not 1 corresponding to AIC=--2logL+2

              and not square root of 2 as advocated by Murray Aitken,

                    .We propose consideration of a FRACTILE MATCHING ZETA PROBABILITY.

  

                     

                      Our criteria will be compared with AIC and DIC and their frequency properties  

                     investigated   Poisson Log-Linear Models are currently under consideration, following

                     Leonard, Papasouliotis and Main (Journal of Geophysics (2001) and Stretfaris (2000)

                                             Stretfaris and Worton (2007)

 

ON THE HISTORY OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

                                    

                                                                                

                                                    Forecasting with uncertainty

PETER WHITTLE DEVELOPED MANY OF THE STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES later POPULARISED BY BOX AND JENKINS.  THEN EVERYBODY REALIZED THE IMPACT OF INTERVENTIONS CAUSING DISCONTINOUS CHANGE.

       THIS MAKES IT VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT ALL e.g. DURING THE 

COVID PANDEMIC.

                                                       

                                                        

                                                          Peter Whittle (1927-2021)

                                                        

                              TIME SERIES   An Overview and Brief History (Aileen Nielsen)

                                           HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING 

                                       

                                                   BRIEF HISTORY (Stockholm University)

                                                  BRIEF HISTORY AND FUTURE RESEARCH (Ruey Tsai)

                                                        WIKIPEDIA

                                                  KALMAN FILTER

                                                                       

The filtering method is named for Hungarian émigré Rudolf E. Kálmán, although Thorvald Nicolai Thiele^[13][14] and Peter Swerling developed a similar algorithm earlier. Richard S. Bucy of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory contributed to the theory, causing it to be known sometimes as Kalman–Bucy filtering. Stanley F. Schmidt is generally credited with developing the first implementation of a Kalman filter. He realized that the filter could be divided into two distinct parts, with one part for time periods between sensor outputs and another part for incorporating measurements.^[15] It was during a visit by Kálmán to the NASA Ames Research Center that Schmidt saw the applicability of Kálmán's ideas to the nonlinear problem of trajectory estimation for the Apollo program resulting in its incorporation in the Apollo navigation computer. This Kalman filtering was first described and developed partially in technical papers by Swerling (1958), Kalman (1960) and Kalman and Bucy (1961).

                                                        

                                                                Rudolf Kalman (1930-2016)

                                                              Helped get rockets to the moon

The Apollo computer used 2k of magnetic core RAM and 36k wire rope [...]. The CPU was built from ICs [...]. Clock speed was under 100 kHz [...]. The fact that the MIT engineers were able to pack such good software (one of the very first applications of the Kalman filter) into such a tiny computer is truly remarkable.

— Interview with Jack Crenshaw, by Matthew Reed, TRS-80.org (2009) [1]

Kalman filters have been vital in the implementation of the navigation systems of U.S. Navy nuclear ballistic missile submarines, and in the guidance and navigation systems of cruise missiles such as the U.S. Navy's Tomahawk missile and the U.S. Air Force's Air Launched Cruise Missile. They are also used in the guidance and navigation systems of reusable launch vehicles and the attitude control and navigation systems of spacecraft which dock at the International Space Station.^[16]

ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK PROCESS

In mathematics, the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is a stochastic process with applications in financial mathematics and the physical sciences. Its original application in physics was as a model for the velocity of a massive Brownian particle under the influence of friction. It is named after Leonard Ornstein and George Eugene Uhlenbeck

                                                         Leonard Ornstein

                                                              

                                                               George Uhlenbeck

COX PROCESSES When the data are simply points in time,

                                                    

                                                        A Point Process

                                                                          

                                               David Cox (1924-2022)

DETECTING DEPLETIONS IN THE OZONE LAYER (By Greg Reinsel et al)

                                                                Greg Reinsel (1948-2004)

                                              Detected change in trend using time series model

!n the study of detection of a possible change in linear trend at a known time t = T0, as an extension of the statistical model in (1), we consider a piecewise linear trend model of the form

                                             WHITTLE LIKELIHOOD

          WHITTLE (!953) THE ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE TIME SERIES

                                                                   Peter Whittle

        During the 1940s and 1950s the subject of statistical time series analysis matured from a scattered collection of methods into formal branch of statistics. Much of the mathematical groundwork was laid down and many of the practical methods were developed during this period. The foundations of the field were developed by individuals whose names are familiar to most statisticians: Yule, Wold, Wiener, and Kolmogorov. Interestingly, many of the methodological techniques that originated 40 to 50 years ago still play a principal role in modern time-series analysis. A key participant in this golden-age of time-series analysis was Peter Whittle

PETER WHITTLE DEVELOPED MANY OF THE STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES LATER PURLOINED AND POPULARISED BY BOX AND JENKINS AND THEIR MULTITUDINOUS FOLLOWERS. THEN EVERYBODY REALIZED THE IMPACT OF INTERVENTIONS CAUSING DISCONTINOUS CHANGE, AND MANY RESEARCHERS ON THE BANDWAGON SWITCHED TO PATTERN RECOGNITION.

      

               

                                                        

                                                        Andrei Mikolaevich Kolmorogov

In 1931 Kolmogorov's paper "Analytical methods in probability theory" appeared, in which he laid the foundations for the modern theory of Markov processes. According to Gnedenko: "In the history of probability theory it is difficult to find other works that changed the established points of view and basic trends in research work in such a decisive way. In fact, this work could be considered as the beginning of a new stage in the development of the whole theory".

The theory had a few forerunners: A.A. Markov, H. Poincare and Bachelier, Fokker, Planck, Smolukhovski and Chapman. Their particular equations for individual problems in physics, informally obtained, followed as special cases in Kolmogorov's theory. A long series of subsequent publications followed, by Kolmogorov and his followers, among which a paper by Kolmogorov dealing with one of the basic problems of mathematical statistics, where he introduces his famous criterion (Kolmogorov's test) for using the empirical distribution function of observed random variables to test the validity of an hypothesis about their true distribution. In general Kolmogorov's ideas on probability and statistics have led to numerous theoretic developments, and to numerous applications in present-day physical sciences.

                                                                  

                                                                Young Kolmorogov

Thomas H. Leonard's Publications in Statistics, History, Geophysics and Medicine (1972-2022) with Annotations

 

Thomas H. Leonard's Publications in Statistics, History, Geophysics and Medicine (1972-2022) with ANNOTATIONS

                                             AMENDED AND ANNOTATED,  January 2022

                                                                

                                                            Thomas H. Leonard Wiki

                   Numerous technical reports e.g. published by the American College Testing Program (1971-2) and by the Department of of the Universities of Warwick ( 1972-1980) have been omitted as have my published  comments on papers which have been read to the Royal Statistical Society, I however include some of my  self-published work. I am still trying to update the links.

                                                                                

 

                        Books,Self-Published Novels and Histories 

                        1.SCIENTIFIC INFERENCE, DATA ANALYSIS, AND ROBUSTNESS
                       (Academic Press, 1983. Co-edited with George Box and Chien-Fu Wu)

                        2.BAYESIAN METHODS (Cambridge University Press, 1999, with John Hsu)

                             Well reviewed e.g. Chapter 4 takes apart the Bernoulli- Savage Expected

                         Utility Hypothesis

                        3. A COURSE IN CATEGORICAL DATA ANALYSIS ( Chapman and Hall 2000,
                        with contributions by Orestis Papasouliotis. Taylor and Francis e-book, 2020) 

                                  I retired from University of Edinburgh in 2001.

                        

                        4 GRAND SCHEMES ON QINSATORIX (2012) self-published novel studylib.net 

                        

                        5.THE LIFE OF A BAYESIAN BOY (2012, self-published)

                        6.**.A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS up to

                                 1971 (2014, Wiley)

                        Wiley Hot Article of the Week 28th April 2014

                   Article Level Metrics


                          Score in context

Is one of the highest ever scores in this journal (ranked #7 of 136)

Puts article in the top 25% of all articles ranked by attention

Very good compared to articles of the same age (82nd percentile)

      
                        7. A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS  (2014, StatsLife)

                        8. A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS from 1972  (2014,                                    revised  2021)

                              Self published

                        9.  THE EARLY HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS (2014)    Slidetodoc.com

                             As presented to a meeting of the Edinburgh Section of the Royal Statisticsl                                     Society

                              

                        10.(2THE LIFE OF A BAYESIAN BOY: AN INTERVIEW WITH THOMAS                                          HOSKYNS LEONARD 014, Statistics Views)

I believe that most statistical investigations are inherently subjective in nature, and that statisticians should no longer attempt to achieve ‘false objectivity’. Rather than attempting to educate the public in a possibly misleading manner, I think that our leading statistical societies should focus on encouraging their members to invariably insist on fairness, professionalism, and impartial honesty, while acknowledging the subjective nature of their conclusions. It is only then that we can hope to properly educate the public regarding the real benefits that can be gained from statistical investigations.

                  
                        11..REBORN ON SOUTRA (2017, Self-Published Novel)

                        12. INTERVIEW BY DIEGO ANDRES LUIS PEREZ (Bulletin of the International
                        Society for Bayesian Analysis, 2016)


                        13.WRITTEN AND VERBAL SUBMISSIONS TO THE  COMMISSION

                      OF INQUIRY   INTO THE HISTORY OF EUGENICS AT UCL 

                      (with Scott Forster 2019)

                         Our quote

                      has been cited by Professor Ann Alison Phoenix of UCL

             Eugenics was not universally popular in its heydays. Early critics of Eugenics included Lester Frank Ward, GK Chesterton(see his 1917 book Eugenics and Other Evils), Franz Boas, Halliday Sutherland, and Aldous Huxley, Liberal MP Josiah Wedgwood would speak against the 1913 Mental Deficiency Act. This Act, though containing elements of welfare state provision, also made judgements on mental abilities as if they were fixed and biological rather than the result of material social conditions.

       The early eugenicists cannot therefore be exonerated on the grounds that their preachings were unquestioned at that time.

                        14.OUR  ARCHIVES ON GALTONIAN EUGENICS (2019- 2021)   

    

                    15. PROFESSOR DAVID FINNEY, SIR GODFREY THOMPSON AND 

                                  EUGENICS IN EDINBURGH 

           

                        16. LOOKING BACK THROUGH THE FIREBALL  (2022) COMPLETED                                        NOVEL

                                         

                                                  

             

                                                  
                                                                             Dissertations

                       Bayesian Methods for Several Multinomial Distributions (1971)
                      M.Sc, Dissertation,University College London. Supervised by D.V. Lindley.

                       Mark of Distinction on advanced, research level Masters,

                       Bayesian Methods for the Simultaneous Estimation of Several Parameters (1973)
                       Ph.D. Thesis, University of London    Supervised by D.V. Lindley 

                          External Examiner: Patricia Altham, University of Cambridge,

                                                             Patricia Altham, pioneer of

                                                        Bayesian Categorical Data Analysis

Chapter 1                 Introduction

Chapter 2                 The Estimation of Several Parameters

Chapter 3                 The Simultaneous Estimation of Multinomial Cell Probabilities

Chapter 4                 A Bayesian Method for Histograms

Chapter 5                 A Bayesian Analysis for Several Multinomial Distributions

Chapter 6                 Two-Way Contingency Tables and Related Topics

Chapter 7                 The Linear Model with Unequal Variances

Chapter 8                 Regression Models

                                                          ARTICLES     ** 22 best papers (in my opinion!)
                                     

                       DURING 1970s    Papers 1,2,7, and 12 were inspired by D.V. Lindley,

                       and have since been regarded  by Hitchcock and Agresti  (2005)  as initiating 

                       a key 'logistic' approach in the history  of Bayesian Categorical Data                                      Analysis, that followed the methodologies of Jack Good and Patricia Altham.

                                Nan Laird, Matthew Knuiman and Terry Speed have also contributed to                          this logistic approach, and it  was pursued exhaustively by Jon Forster, and                           by John Geweke and other econometricians.

                                     

                       1. BAYESIAN METHODS FOR BINOMIAL DATA (1972) Biometrika

                                         (I published a related paper with John Hsu in 2017 i.e. 45 years later!)

                             


                       2**. A BAYESIAN METHOD FOR HISTOGRAMS (1973) Biometrika


                      3. A MODIFICATION TO THE BAYES ESTIMATE OF THE MEAN OF  A NORMAL
                            DISTRIBUTION (1974) Biometrika

                       4, COMMENT ON THE ESTIMATION OF PROPORTIONS IN
                           M GROUPS (1974) Psychometrika

                      5. Letter on Parapsychology and Coincidences (1974) Sunday Times
                          Later reproduced in INCREDIBLE COINCIDENCE by Alan Vaughan

                      6.**. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE LINEAR MODEL WITH
                          UNEQUAL VARIANCES (1975) Technometrics

                     Later extensively applied by Jean Foulley, Daniel Gianola, and Rob Tempelman

                     to Animal Breeding, and by John Geweke to Econometrics. 

                      7 **BAYESIAN ESTIMATION METHODS FOR TWO-WAY
                          CONTINGENCY TABLES (1975) JRSSB

                      8. SOME ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO MULTI-PARAMETER
                           ESTIMATION (1976) Biometrika

                      9. AN INVESTIGATION OF THE F-TEST PROCEDURE AS AN
                           ESTIMATION SHORTCUT (with J.K.Ord, 1976) JRSSB.

                                 Provides an early Bayesian justification of Akaike's criterion AIC,

                     10. BAYES ESTIMATION SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PARAMETER
                           CONSTRAINTS (with A O'Hagan, 1976) Biometrika

                     11. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO SOME MULTINOMIAL ESTIMATION
                           AND PRETESTING PROBLEMS (1977) JASA. Another Bayesian justification

                         of AIC.

                     12.** AN ALTERNATIVE BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE BRADLEY-TERRY
                           MODEL FOR PAIRED COMPARISONS (1977) Biometrics

                             USCF later considered my methodology for ranking chess players.

                             

                     13. BAYESIAN SIMULTANEOUS ESTIMATION FOR SEVERAL
                           MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS (1977) Comm. Statist. A

                   14. AN APPLICATION OF MULTIVARIATE HIERARCHICAL
                            FORECASTING (with P.J. Harrison and T.Gazard, 1977)
                            RSS Annual Conference Proceedings

                     15**.  DENSITY ESTIMATION, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES AND
                            PRIOR  INFORMATION (with Discussion, 1978) JRSSB

               (This paper initiated a very extensive high quality literature, by Peter Lenk, Daniel                 Thorburn, Chong Gu, Finbarr O'Sullivan,  Dennis Cox, Jaako Riihimaki, and Aki                      Vehtari. Approximate solutions can be computed using Havard Rue's computer

                package INLA)

                                                     289 citations including

                                         CITATIONS (semantic scholar)

                        Peter Lenk (2019) has fully implemented his methodology on his BSAM package                            on   R

                               
                          
                          
                     DURING 1980s (Includes long fallow period during time I worked half-time for

                    U.S. Army with MRC, and until I began by my  research with John Hsu)

                                     

                       1**. THE ROLES OF COHERENCE AND INDUCTIVE MODELLING
                           IN BAYESIAN STATISTICS (with Discussion,1980) Valencia 1

                       2.**THE PROBABILITY OF FETAL METALOBIC ACIDOSIS DURING
                           LABOR IN A POPULATION AT RISK AS DETERMINED BY
                           CLINICAL FACTORS (with Discussion, 1981 with Jim Low et al)
                           American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology 

                       3 ** Comment on A SIMPLE PREDICTIVE DENSITY FUNCTION (1982)
                            JASA. Contains a seminal result introducing conditional Laplacian
                            Approximations into the Bayesian literature. Amazing accuracy was                                               demonstrated by John Hsu

                           during his subsequent Ph.D. research. Cited by Tierney and Kadane as source                               reference,

                       4  AN EMPIRICAL BAYES APPROACH TO THE SMOOTH
                           ESTIMATION OF UNKNOWN FUNCTIONS (1982) MRC Report

                          This technical report and my research with Finbarr O'Sullivan initiated a large                                literature on the

                         effectively Bayesian smoothing of logistic regression functions, It was adapted by

                                          O'Sullivan, Yandell, and Raynor (JASA 1986)

                        John Hsu and I were not to publish a fully Bayesian approach to semi-parametric

                     logistic regression until our paper in Biometrika (1997). 

                  

                                  

                       5. AN INFERENTIAL APPROACH TO THE BIOSSAY DESIGN
                           PROBLEM (1982) MRC Report     
                           
                       6. APPLICATIONS OF THE EM ALGORITHM TO THE
                           ESTIMATION OF BAYESIAN HYPERPARAMETERS (1982)
                           MRC Report

                       7.  STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR THE SKEWED NORMAL
                            AND RELATED DISTRIBUTIONS (1982, with Louis Broekhoven)
                            MRC Report
  
                       8.  A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO MARKOVIAN  MODELS FOR
                            NORMAL AND POISSON DATA (1982) MRC Report

                       9. BAYES ESTIMATION OF A MULTIVARIATE DENSITY
                           (1982) MRC Report

                     10. SOME PHILOSOPHIES OF INFERENCE AND MODELING
                          (1983) In Scientific Inference, Robustness and Data Analysis

                     11 Comment on PARAMETRIC EMPIRICAL BAYES INFERENCE by Carl Morris
                           (1983)JASA    

                     12. SOME DATA-ANALYTIC MODIFICATIONS TO BAYES-STEIN
                            ESTIMATION (1984) Ann Inst Statist Math

                     13 ON BAYES THEOREM, PATERNITY TESTING AND WISCONSIN
                           LAW (1985) UW Report 

                     14  COMMENT ON THE PAPER BY DIACONIS AND EFRON (1985) Annals of                                Statistics                     

                     15. BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND DIAGNOSTICS FOR THE
                           THREE PARAMETER LOGISTIC MODEL (1985, with M.R.Novick)
                           ONR Report, cited in psychometrics literature.           

                     16**. BAYESIAN FULL-RANK MARGINALIZATION FOR TWO-WAY
                           CONTINGENCY TABLES (1986, with M.R. Novick) JES

                            Includes analysis of the Marine Corps Data, and Laplacian Approximations,

                     17 ON THE APPLICATION OF AIC TO BIVARIATE DENSITY
                           ESTIMATION, NON-PARAMETRIC REGRESSION, AND
                           DISCRIMINATION (1985, with T. Atilgan) in Multivariate Statistical Modeling 

                           and Data Analysis (ed by Bozdogan and Gupta)
                       

                     18.** BAYESIAN MARGINAL INFERENCE (1989, with John Hsu
                           ands Kam-Wah Tsui) JASA

                    This paper got conditional Laplacian approximations right

                                                              John and Serene Hsu

            

                

                    DURING 1990s  


                      1. Comment on PREDICTIVE LIKELIHOOD-A REVIEW
                          (1990, with John Hsu and Kam-Wah Tsui) Statistical Science

                      2. Commentary on PARENTING PROBABILITY, AN
                          UNNECESSARY ARTIFACT (1991, by John Wood) 
                          (Reference obscure)

                      3. **STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR MULTIPLE CHOICE TESTS
                          (1991, with John Hsu and Kam-Wah Tsui) Psychometrika

                      4.** BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR A COVARIANCE MATRIX
                          (1992, with John Hsu) Annals of Statistics

                        Motivated a large literature  e.g. by John Hsu, Marick Sinay, Chih-Wen Hsu,                                  Xinwei Deng, Kam Wah Tsui, Jim Berger and Ruoyong Yang, Manabu Asai and                                    MIcheal McAleer (stochastic volatility models), and Peter Williams (neural                                        networks)              

                      5. BAYESIAN ANALYSIS, AN OVERVIEW      
                          (1992, first ISBA newsletter)

                      6. THE BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF CATEGORICAL DATA,
                          A SELECTIVE REVIEW (1994, with John Hsu) In Aspects of Uncertainty: 
                         A Tribute to D.V. Lindley     
                         

                      7. THE LAPLACIAN T-APPROXIMATION IN BAYESIAN INFERENCE
                         (1994, with John Hsu and Christian Ritter) Statistica Sinica

                      8. BAYESIAN AND LIKELIHOOD METHODS FROM
                          EQUALLY WEIGHTED MIXTURES
                          (1994, with John Hsu et al) Ann Inst Statist Math

                      9.ON SMALL SAMPLE BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND DESIGN FOR
                          QUANTAL RESPONSE CURVES (1994,with John Hsu)
                           In Modeling and Prediction honouring Seymour Geisser
                                                                 

                     10. AN INVESTIGATION OF HIERARCHICAL BAYES PROCEDURES
                          IN ITEM RESPONSE THEORY (1994, with S.H. Kim et al)
                           Psychometrika

  

                     11.** ON EXCHANGEABLE SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS FOR
                          UNCONTROLLED DATA (1996) Stat and Prob Letters

                     12**. THE MATRIX-LOGARITHMIC COVARIANCE MODEL
                           (1996, with Tom Chiu and Kam-Wah Tsui) JASA

                               Described as seminal in the Econometrics literature by Asai and McAleer

                                Applied to spatial processes by Le Sage and Pace (2012) , Le Sage and                                        Pace implemented their extensions on their computer package MESS,

                             

                     13.**BAYESIAN METHODS FOR VARIANCE COMPONENTS MODELS
                          (1996, with Li Sun, John Hsu and Irwin Guttman) JASA

                                       

                     14. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION FOR SHIFTED EXPONENTIAL
                          DISTRIBUTIONS (1996, with M.T, Madi) J Stat Plan Inf.

                     15 ESTIMATION OF QUANTITIES HANDLED AND BURDEN
                          OF PROOF ( 1996, with Colin Aitken et al) JRSSA

                     16  PRONOUNCED CYTOPLASMIC PH GRADIENTS ARE NOT
                           REQUIRED FOR TIP GROWTH IN PLANT AND FUNGAL CELLS
                          (1997 with R.M.Parton et al) Journal of Cell Science

                     18 ** A TWO-ITEM SCREENING QUESTIONNAIRE FOR ALCOHOL
                            AND OTHER DRUG PROBLEMS (1997, with R.L. Brown et al)
                          Journal of Family Practice  

                     19**.HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN SEMI-PARAMETRIC PROCEDURES
                           FOR LOGISTIC REGRESSION. (1997, with John Hsu) Biometrika

                                     Cited in history of Bayesian Categorical Data Analysis

                                                 by Hitchcock and Agresti (2005)

                     20 THE PREVALENCE AND DETECTION OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE
                           DISORDERS IN PATIENTS  OF AGES 18 TO 49
                          (1998, with R.L. Brown et al) Preventive Medicine  

                  21, Izenman A. J., Papasouliotis, 0., Leonard, T., and Aitken, C. G. G. (1998). 

                  Bayesian predictive evaluation of measurement error with application to 

                  the assessment of illicit drug quantity. 

                 Technical Report 3, Statistical Laboratory, University of Edinburgh

                     22.**  ONE SLOPE OR TWO? DETECTING STATISTICALLY
                            SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OF SLOPE IN GEOPHYSICAL DATA
                           (1999, with Ian Main et al) Geophysical Research Letters


                       AD 2000 and beyond ( I took time off and then retired early in 2001)

                      Three joint papers, concerning a statistical approach to radial basis
                      networks, with International Chess Master Mark Orr and his colleagues in 
                      A.I. are omitted as I did not substantively contribute. They appeared in
                      the International Journal for Neural Systems (1999, 2000). 

                       The Geophysics patent and two related papers evolved from Chapter 5 of 
                      Orestis Papasouliotis ' Ph.D. thesis The first four chapters of Orestis' thesis

                       describe his as yet unpublished research, supervised by myself ,on the Bayesian 

                       Analysis of Covariance, with an application in Forensic Psychology.

                               

                      1. BAYES ESTIMATION WITH UNCERTAIN ORDER CONSTRAINTS
                          (2000, with M.T.Madi and Kam-Wah Tsui) J Stat Plan Inf

                      2 A TWO-ITEM CONJOINT SCREEN FOR ALCOHOL AND OTHER 
                          DRUG RELATED PROBLEMS (2001, with R.L.Brown et al)
                          Journal of the Board of Family Practice  

                      3 ** A BAYESIAN FIXED EFFECTS ANALYSIS OF THE 
                          MANTEL-HAENSZEL MODEL APPLIED TO META ANALYSIS
                          (2002, with John Duffy) Statistics in Medicine   

                      4. COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION  (2003, with O. Papasouliotis)
                             Encyclopedia of Environmetrics

                      5.** A POISSON MODEL FOR IDENTIFYING CHARACTERISTIC SIZE
                          EFFECTS IN FREQUENCY DATA (2001, with O. Papasouliotis and
                           Ian Main) Journal of Geophysical Research

                      6 THE SAFARI CAT DATA, PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND 
                          POSSIBLY MONOTONIC POPULATION PROPORTIONS
                          (2005, with John Hsu) UCSB, Unpublished Manuscript

                      7 BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR MODEL CHOICE
                          (2006, with John Hsu) UCSB, Unpublished Manuscript, a bit flawed             

                      8** .LONG RANGE CRITICAL POINT DYNAMICS IN OILFIELD
                          FLOW RATE DATA (2006, with Ian Main et al)
                          Geophysical Research Letters

                      9. HYDROCARBON RECOVERY FROM A HYDROCARBON RESERVOIR
                           (2006, with Ian Main et al) International Patent

                     10.** THE STATISTICAL RESERVOIR MODEL: CALIBRATING FAULTS
                           AND FRACTURES AND PREDICTING RESERVOIR RESPONSE TO
                           WATER FLOOD (2007, with Ian Main et al) Geological Society London

                                This and Low et al (1981) are my two best joint applied papers. 

                 They seem to have been seminal in Medicine and in Geophysics. Orestis and I 

                  contributed the key statistical ideas to the Geophysics paper,

                11 Numerous international posts as moderator Mental Health Discussions                                        Edinburgh (2015-date)

                     12. ON ANALYSING THE SCOTTISH CRIME DATA, AND MENTAL 
                           HEALTH (2015)
                           Thomas Hoskyns Leonard Blog

                                

                    13 **INSURANCE MORTALITY RATES., PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND                              POSSIBLY MONOTONIC POPULATION PROPORTIONS       

                         (with John Hsu) International Journal of Statistics and Probability 2017
                

                     14ALL ABOUT ATTENTION DEFICIT DISORDER (2019)  Self-published, in                                   preparation.

                     15. DISCUSSION (WITH DIEGO PEREZ) OF KIDD AND KATZFUSS'S 

                    DISCUSSION PAPER ON SPATIAL PROCESSES TO ISBA,

                                     BAYESIAN ANALYSIS (2022). 

                      WOW! I HAVE NOW PUBLISHED IN THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNALS FOR 50                        YEARS

                          


                      I have also self-published over 100 poems and published about 10 poems in church publications, the Broughton Spurtle and elsewhere. My short story Joe's Mole (2012) is published in an obscure book. 

                           


                                  

                              
                               Tom, aged 67, reading a poem to the 'Blind Poetics'
                                performance group, in the Blind Poet Bar, Edinburgh