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Thursday, 20 January 2022

ON THE HISTORY OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

                                    


                                                                                

                                                    Forecasting with uncertainty

PETER WHITTLE DEVELOPED MANY OF THE STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES later POPULARISED BY BOX AND JENKINS.  THEN EVERYBODY REALIZED THE IMPACT OF INTERVENTIONS CAUSING DISCONTINOUS CHANGE.




       THIS MAKES IT VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT ALL e.g. DURING THE 

COVID PANDEMIC.


                                                       

                                                        

                                                          Peter Whittle (1927-2021)

                                                        



                              TIME SERIES   An Overview and Brief History (Aileen Nielsen)

                                           HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING 


                                       








                                                   BRIEF HISTORY (Stockholm University)


                                                  BRIEF HISTORY AND FUTURE RESEARCH (Ruey Tsai)


                                                        WIKIPEDIA


                                                  KALMAN FILTER


                                                                       




The filtering method is named for Hungarian émigré Rudolf E. Kálmán, although Thorvald Nicolai Thiele[13][14] and Peter Swerling developed a similar algorithm earlier. Richard S. Bucy of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory contributed to the theory, causing it to be known sometimes as Kalman–Bucy filtering. Stanley F. Schmidt is generally credited with developing the first implementation of a Kalman filter. He realized that the filter could be divided into two distinct parts, with one part for time periods between sensor outputs and another part for incorporating measurements.[15] It was during a visit by Kálmán to the NASA Ames Research Center that Schmidt saw the applicability of Kálmán's ideas to the nonlinear problem of trajectory estimation for the Apollo program resulting in its incorporation in the Apollo navigation computer. This Kalman filtering was first described and developed partially in technical papers by Swerling (1958), Kalman (1960) and Kalman and Bucy (1961).




                                                        

                                                                Rudolf Kalman (1930-2016)

                                                              Helped get rockets to the moon


The Apollo computer used 2k of magnetic core RAM and 36k wire rope [...]. The CPU was built from ICs [...]. Clock speed was under 100 kHz [...]. The fact that the MIT engineers were able to pack such good software (one of the very first applications of the Kalman filter) into such a tiny computer is truly remarkable.

— Interview with Jack Crenshaw, by Matthew Reed, TRS-80.org (2009) [1]

Kalman filters have been vital in the implementation of the navigation systems of U.S. Navy nuclear ballistic missile submarines, and in the guidance and navigation systems of cruise missiles such as the U.S. Navy's Tomahawk missile and the U.S. Air Force's Air Launched Cruise Missile. They are also used in the guidance and navigation systems of reusable launch vehicles and the attitude control and navigation systems of spacecraft which dock at the International Space Station.[16]




ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK PROCESS

In mathematics, the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is a stochastic process with applications in financial mathematics and the physical sciences. Its original application in physics was as a model for the velocity of a massive Brownian particle under the influence of friction. It is named after Leonard Ornstein and George Eugene Uhlenbeck






                                                         Leonard Ornstein


                                                              
                                                               George Uhlenbeck



COX PROCESSES When the data are simply points in time,


                                                    


                                                        A Point Process


                                                                          


                                               David Cox (1924-2022)





DETECTING DEPLETIONS IN THE OZONE LAYER (By Greg Reinsel et al)






                                                                Greg Reinsel (1948-2004)


                                              Detected change in trend using time series model


!n the study of detection of a possible change in linear trend at a known time t = T0, as an extension of the statistical model in (1), we consider a piecewise linear trend model of the form

urn:x-wiley:01480227:media:jgrd8846:jgrd8846-math-0006




                                             WHITTLE LIKELIHOOD


          WHITTLE (!953) THE ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE TIME SERIES



                                                                   Peter Whittle


        During the 1940s and 1950s the subject of statistical time series analysis matured from a scattered collection of methods into formal branch of statistics. Much of the mathematical groundwork was laid down and many of the practical methods were developed during this period. The foundations of the field were developed by individuals whose names are familiar to most statisticians: Yule, Wold, Wiener, and Kolmogorov. Interestingly, many of the methodological techniques that originated 40 to 50 years ago still play a principal role in modern time-series analysis. A key participant in this golden-age of time-series analysis was Peter Whittle


PETER WHITTLE DEVELOPED MANY OF THE STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES LATER PURLOINED AND POPULARISED BY BOX AND JENKINS AND THEIR MULTITUDINOUS FOLLOWERS. THEN EVERYBODY REALIZED THE IMPACT OF INTERVENTIONS CAUSING DISCONTINOUS CHANGE, AND MANY RESEARCHERS ON THE BANDWAGON SWITCHED TO PATTERN RECOGNITION.

      

               

                                                        

                                                        Andrei Mikolaevich Kolmorogov


In 1931 Kolmogorov's paper "Analytical methods in probability theory" appeared, in which he laid the foundations for the modern theory of Markov processes. According to Gnedenko: "In the history of probability theory it is difficult to find other works that changed the established points of view and basic trends in research work in such a decisive way. In fact, this work could be considered as the beginning of a new stage in the development of the whole theory".

The theory had a few forerunners: A.A. Markov, H. Poincare and Bachelier, Fokker, Planck, Smolukhovski and Chapman. Their particular equations for individual problems in physics, informally obtained, followed as special cases in Kolmogorov's theory. A long series of subsequent publications followed, by Kolmogorov and his followers, among which a paper by Kolmogorov dealing with one of the basic problems of mathematical statistics, where he introduces his famous criterion (Kolmogorov's test) for using the empirical distribution function of observed random variables to test the validity of an hypothesis about their true distribution. In general Kolmogorov's ideas on probability and statistics have led to numerous theoretic developments, and to numerous applications in present-day physical sciences.

                                                                  

                                                                Young Kolmorogov

Wednesday, 19 January 2022

Thomas H. Leonard's Publications in Statistics, History, Geophysics and Medicine (1972-2022) with Annotations

 

Thomas H. Leonard's Publications in Statistics, History, Geophysics and Medicine (1972-2022)


                                             AMENDED AND ANNOTATED,  January 2022

                                                                

                                                            Thomas H. Leonard Wiki

                   Numerous technical reports e.g. published by the American College Testing Program (1971-2) and by the Department of of the Universities of Warwick ( 1972-1980) have been omitted as have my published  comments on papers which have been read to the Royal Statistical Society, I however include some of my  self-published work. I am still trying to update the links.

                                                                                

 

                        Books,Self-Published Novels and Histories 

                        1.SCIENTIFIC INFERENCE, DATA ANALYSIS, AND ROBUSTNESS
                       (Academic Press, 1983. Co-edited with George Box and Chien-Fu Wu)

                        2.BAYESIAN METHODS (Cambridge University Press, 1999, with John Hsu)
                             Well reviewed e.g. Chapter 4 takes apart the Bernoulli- Savage Expected
                         Utility Hypothesis

                        3. A COURSE IN CATEGORICAL DATA ANALYSIS ( Chapman and Hall 2000,
                        with contributions by Orestis Papasouliotis. Taylor and Francis e-book, 2020) 

                                  I retired from University of Edinburgh in 2001.

                        

                        4 GRAND SCHEMES ON QINSATORIX (2012) self-published novel studylib.net 
                        

                        5.THE LIFE OF A BAYESIAN BOY (2012, self-published)

                        6.**.A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS up to
                                 1971 (2014, Wiley)

                        Wiley Hot Article of the Week 28th April 2014


                   Article Level Metrics


                          Score in context
Is one of the highest ever scores in this journal (ranked #7 of 136)
Puts article in the top 25% of all articles ranked by attention
Very good compared to articles of the same age (82nd percentile)




      
                        7. A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS  (2014, StatsLife)

                        8. A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS from 1972  (2014,                                    revised  2021)
                              Self published

                        9.  THE EARLY HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS (2014)    Slidetodoc.com
                             As presented to a meeting of the Edinburgh Section of the Royal Statisticsl                                     Society

                              

                        10.THE LIFE OF A BAYESIAN BOY: AN INTERVIEW WITH THOMAS HOSKYNS 

                        LEONARD (2014, Statistics Views)
                  
                        11..REBORN ON SOUTRA (2017, Self-Published Novel)

                        12. INTERVIEW BY DIEGO ANDRES LUIS PEREZ (Bulletin of the International
                        Society for Bayesian Analysis, 2016)


                        13.WRITTEN AND VERBAL SUBMISSIONS TO THE  COMMISSION

                      OF INQUIRY   INTO THE HISTORY OF EUGENICS AT UCL 

                      (with Scott Forster 2019)

    
                    15. PROFESSOR DAVID FINNEY, SIR GODFREY THOMPSON AND 
                                  EUGENICS IEDINBURGH (with Scott Forster, 2019)
           

                        16. LOOKING BACK THROUGH THR FIREBALL  (2022) COMPLETED                                        NOVEL(SUBMITTED)


                        17. A SCOTTISH RE-AWAKENING (2022) NOVEL IN PREPARATION.                 

                                                  

             

                                                  
                                                                             Dissertations

                       Bayesian Methods for Several Multinomial Distributions (1971)
                      M.Sc, Dissertation,University College London. Supervised by D.V. Lindley.
                       Mark of Distinction on advanced, research level Masters,

                       Bayesian Methods for the Simultaneous Estimation of Several Parameters (1973)
                       Ph.D. Thesis, University of London    Supervised by D.V. Lindley 
                          External Examiner: Patricia Altham, University of Cambridge,



                                                             Patricia Altham, pioneer of
                                                        Bayesian Categorical Data Analysis




Chapter 1                 Introduction

Chapter 2                 The Estimation of Several Parameters

Chapter 3                 The Simultaneous Estimation of Multinomial Cell Probabilities

Chapter 4                 A Bayesian Method for Histograms

Chapter 5                 A Bayesian Analysis for Several Multinomial Distributions

Chapter 6                 Two-Way Contingency Tables and Related Topics

Chapter 7                 The Linear Model with Unequal Variances

Chapter 8                 Regression Models






                                                          ARTICLES     ** 22 best papers (in my opinion!)
                                     

                       DURING 1970s    Papers 1,2,7, and 12 were inspired by D.V. Lindley,
                       and have since been regarded  by Hitchcock and Agresti  (2005)  as initiating 
                       a key 'logistic' approach in the history  of Bayesian Categorical Data                                      Analysis, that followed the methodologies of Jack Good and Patricia Altham.
                                Nan Laird, Matthew Knuiman and Terry Speed have also contributed to                          this logistic approach, and it  was pursued exhaustively by Jon Forster, and                           by John Geweke and other econometricians.
                                     

                       1. BAYESIAN METHODS FOR BINOMIAL DATA (1972) Biometrika
                                         (I published a related paper with John Hsu in 2017 i.e. 45 years later!)
                             


                       2**. A BAYESIAN METHOD FOR HISTOGRAMS (1973) Biometrika


                      3. A MODIFICATION TO THE BAYES ESTIMATE OF THE MEAN OF  A NORMAL
                            DISTRIBUTION (1974) Biometrika

                       4, COMMENT ON THE ESTIMATION OF PROPORTIONS IN
                           M GROUPS (1974) Psychometrika

                      5Letter on Parapsychology and Coincidences (1974) Sunday Times
                          Later reproduced in INCREDIBLE COINCIDENCE by Alan Vaughan

                      6.**. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE LINEAR MODEL WITH
                          UNEQUAL VARIANCES (1975) Technometrics

                     Later extensively applied by Jean Foulley, Daniel Gianola, and Rob Tempelman
                     to Animal Breeding, and by John Geweke to Econometrics. 

                      7 **BAYESIAN ESTIMATION METHODS FOR TWO-WAY
                          CONTINGENCY TABLES (1975) JRSSB

                      8. SOME ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO MULTI-PARAMETER
                           ESTIMATION (1976) Biometrika

                      9. AN INVESTIGATION OF THE F-TEST PROCEDURE AS AN
                           ESTIMATION SHORTCUT (with J.K.Ord, 1976) JRSSB.
                                 Provides an early Bayesian justification of Akaike's criterion AIC,

                     10. BAYES ESTIMATION SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PARAMETER
                           CONSTRAINTS (with A O'Hagan, 1976) Biometrika

                     11. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO SOME MULTINOMIAL ESTIMATION
                           AND PRETESTING PROBLEMS (1977) JASA. Another Bayesian justification
                         of AIC.

                     12.** AN ALTERNATIVE BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE BRADLEY-TERRY
                           MODEL FOR PAIRED COMPARISONS (1977) Biometrics
                             USCF later considered my methodology for ranking chess players.
                             

                     13. BAYESIAN SIMULTANEOUS ESTIMATION FOR SEVERAL
                           MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS (1977) Comm. Statist. A

                   14. AN APPLICATION OF MULTIVARIATE HIERARCHICAL
                            FORECASTING (with P.J. Harrison and T.Gazard, 1977)
                            RSS Annual Conference Proceedings

                     15**.  DENSITY ESTIMATION, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES AND
                            PRIOR  INFORMATION (with Discussion, 1978) JRSSB

               (This paper initiated a very extensive high quality literature, by Peter Lenk, Daniel                 Thorburn, Chong Gu, Finbarr O'Sullivan,  Dennis Cox, Jaako Riihimaki, and Aki                      Vehtari)

                                                     289 citations including

                                         CITATIONS (semantic scholar)

                        Peter Lenk (2019) has fully implemented his methodology on his BSAM package                            on   R
                               
                          
                          
                     DURING 1980s (Includes long fallow period during time I worked half-time for
                    U.S. Army with MRC, and until I began by my  research with John Hsu)
                                     

                       1**. THE ROLES OF COHERENCE AND INDUCTIVE MODELLING
                           IN BAYESIAN STATISTICS (with Discussion,1980) Valencia 1

                       2.**THE PROBABILITY OF FETAL METALOBIC ACIDOSIS DURING
                           LABOR IN A POPULATION AT RISK AS DETERMINED BY
                           CLINICAL FACTORS (with Discussion, 1981 with Jim Low et al)
                           American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology 

                       3 ** Comment on A SIMPLE PREDICTIVE DENSITY FUNCTION (1982)
                            JASA. Contains a seminal result introducing conditional Laplacian
                            Approximations into the Bayesian literature. Amazing accuracy was                                               demonstrated by John Hsu
                           during his subsequent Ph.D. research. Cited by Tierney and Kadane as source                               reference,

                       4  AN EMPIRICAL BAYES APPROACH TO THE SMOOTH
                           ESTIMATION OF UNKNOWN FUNCTIONS (1982) MRC Report

                          This technical report and my research with Finbarr O'Sullivan initiated a large                                literature on the
                         effectively Bayesian smoothing of logistic regression functions, It was adapted by

                                          O'Sullivan, Yandell, and Raynor (JASA 1986)

                        John Hsu and I were not to publish a fully Bayesian approach to semi-parametric
                     logistic regression until our paper in Biometrika (1997). 
                  
                                  

                       5. AN INFERENTIAL APPROACH TO THE BIOSSAY DESIGN
                           PROBLEM (1982) MRC Report     
                           
                       6. APPLICATIONS OF THE EM ALGORITHM TO THE
                           ESTIMATION OF BAYESIAN HYPERPARAMETERS (1982)
                           MRC Report

                       7.  STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR THE SKEWED NORMAL
                            AND RELATED DISTRIBUTIONS (1982, with Louis Broekhoven)
                            MRC Report
  
                       8.  A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO MARKOVIAN  MODELS FOR
                            NORMAL AND POISSON DATA (1982) MRC Report

                       9. BAYES ESTIMATION OF A MULTIVARIATE DENSITY
                           (1982) MRC Report

                     10SOME PHILOSOPHIES OF INFERENCE AND MODELING
                          (1983) In Scientific Inference, Robustness and Data Analysis

                     11 Comment on PARAMETRIC EMPIRICAL BAYES INFERENCE by Carl Morris
                           (1983)JASA    

                     12. SOME DATA-ANALYTIC MODIFICATIONS TO BAYES-STEIN
                            ESTIMATION (1984) Ann Inst Statist Math

                     13 ON BAYES THEOREM, PATERNITY TESTING AND WISCONSIN
                           LAW (1985) UW Report 

                     14  COMMENT ON THE PAPER BY DIACONIS AND EFRON (1985) Annals of                                Statistics                     

                     15. BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND DIAGNOSTICS FOR THE
                           THREE PARAMETER LOGISTIC MODEL (1985, with M.R.Novick)
                           ONR Report, cited in psychometrics literature.           

                     16**. BAYESIAN FULL-RANK MARGINALIZATION FOR TWO-WAY
                           CONTINGENCY TABLES (1986, with M.R. Novick) JES
                            Includes analysis of the Marine Corps Data, and Laplacian Approximations,

                     17 ON THE APPLICATION OF AIC TO BIVARIATE DENSITY
                           ESTIMATION, NON-PARAMETRIC REGRESSION, AND
                           DISCRIMINATION (1985, with T. Atilgan) in Multivariate Statistical Modeling 
                           and Data Analysis (ed by Bozdogan and Gupta)
                       

                     18.** BAYESIAN MARGINAL INFERENCE (1989, with John Hsu
                           ands Kam-Wah Tsui) JASA

                    This paper got conditional Laplacian approximations right



                                                              John and Serene Hsu
            
                

                    DURING 1990s  


                      1. Comment on PREDICTIVE LIKELIHOOD-A REVIEW
                          (1990, with John Hsu and Kam-Wah Tsui) Statistical Science

                      2. Commentary on PARENTING PROBABILITY, AN
                          UNNECESSARY ARTIFACT (1991, by John Wood) 
                          (Reference obscure)

                      3. **STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR MULTIPLE CHOICE TESTS
                          (1991, with John Hsu and Kam-Wah Tsui) Psychometrika

                      4.** BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR A COVARIANCE MATRIX
                          (1992, with John Hsu) Annals of Statistics

                        Motivated a large literature  e.g. by John Hsu, Marick Sinay, Chih-Wen Hsu,                                  Xinwei Deng, Kam Wah Tsui, Jim Berger and Ruoyong Yang, Manabu Asai and                                    MIcheal McAleer (stochastic volatility models), and Peter Williams (neural                                        networks)              

                      5. BAYESIAN ANALYSIS, AN OVERVIEW      
                          (1992, first ISBA newsletter)

                      6. THE BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF CATEGORICAL DATA,
                          A SELECTIVE REVIEW (1994, with John Hsu) In Aspects of Uncertainty: 
                         A Tribute to D.V. Lindley     
                         

                      7. THE LAPLACIAN T-APPROXIMATION IN BAYESIAN INFERENCE
                         (1994, with John Hsu and Christian Ritter) Statistica Sinica

                      8. BAYESIAN AND LIKELIHOOD METHODS FROM
                          EQUALLY WEIGHTED MIXTURES
                          (1994, with John Hsu et al) Ann Inst Statist Math

                      9.ON SMALL SAMPLE BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND DESIGN FOR
                          QUANTAL RESPONSE CURVES (1994,with John Hsu)
                           In Modeling and Prediction honouring Seymour Geisser
                                                                 

                     10. AN INVESTIGATION OF HIERARCHICAL BAYES PROCEDURES
                          IN ITEM RESPONSE THEORY (1994, with S.H. Kim et al)
                           Psychometrika
  
                     11.** ON EXCHANGEABLE SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS FOR
                          UNCONTROLLED DATA (1996) Stat and Prob Letters

                     12**. THE MATRIX-LOGARITHMIC COVARIANCE MODEL
                           (1996, with Tom Chiu and Kam-Wah Tsui) JASA
                               Described as seminal in the Econometrics literature by Asai and McAleer
                                Applied to spatial processes by Le Sage and Pace (2012) , Le Sage and                                        Pace implemented their extensions on their computer package MESS,

                             


                     13.**BAYESIAN METHODS FOR VARIANCE COMPONENTS MODELS
                          (1996, with Li Sun, John Hsu and Irwin Guttman) JASA
                                       

                     14. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION FOR SHIFTED EXPONENTIAL
                          DISTRIBUTIONS (1996, with M.T, Madi) J Stat Plan Inf.

                     15 ESTIMATION OF QUANTITIES HANDLED AND BURDEN
                          OF PROOF ( 1996, with Colin Aitken et al) JRSSA

                     16  PRONOUNCED CYTOPLASMIC PH GRADIENTS ARE NOT
                           REQUIRED FOR TIP GROWTH IN PLANT AND FUNGAL CELLS
                          (1997 with R.M.Parton et al) Journal of Cell Science

                     18 ** A TWO-ITEM SCREENING QUESTIONNAIRE FOR ALCOHOL
                            AND OTHER DRUG PROBLEMS (1997, with R.L. Brown et al)
                          Journal of Family Practice  

                     19**.HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN SEMI-PARAMETRIC PROCEDURES
                           FOR LOGISTIC REGRESSION. (1997, with John Hsu) Biometrika
                                     Cited in history of Bayesian Categorical Data Analysis
                                                 by Hitchcock and Agresti (2005)

                     20 THE PREVALENCE AND DETECTION OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE
                           DISORDERS IN PATIENTS  OF AGES 18 TO 49
                          (1998, with R.L. Brown et al) Preventive Medicine  

                  21, Izenman A. J., Papasouliotis, 0., Leonard, T., and Aitken, C. G. G. (1998). 
                  Bayesian predictive evaluation of measurement error with application to 
                  the assessment of illicit drug quantity. 
                 Technical Report 3, Statistical Laboratory, University of Edinburgh


                     22.**  ONE SLOPE OR TWO? DETECTING STATISTICALLY
                            SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OF SLOPE IN GEOPHYSICAL DATA

                           (1999, with Ian Main et al) Geophysical Research Letters


                       AD 2000 and beyond ( I took time off and then retired early in 2001)

                      Three joint papers, concerning a statistical approach to radial basis
                      networks, with International Chess Master Mark Orr and his colleagues in 
                      A.I. are omitted as I did not substantively contribute. They appeared in
                      the International Journal for Neural Systems (1999, 2000). 

                       The Geophysics patent and two related papers evolved from Chapter 5 of 
                      Orestis Papasouliotis ' Ph.D. thesis The first four chapters of Orestis' thesis
                       describe his as yet unpublished research, supervised by myself ,on the Bayesian 
                       Analysis of Covariance, with an application in Forensic Psychology.

                               









                      1. BAYES ESTIMATION WITH UNCERTAIN ORDER CONSTRAINTS
                          (2000, with M.T.Madi and Kam-Wah Tsui) J Stat Plan Inf

                      2 A TWO-ITEM CONJOINT SCREEN FOR ALCOHOL AND OTHER 
                          DRUG RELATED PROBLEMS (2001, with R.L.Brown et al)
                          Journal of the Board of Family Practice  

                      3 ** A BAYESIAN FIXED EFFECTS ANALYSIS OF THE 
                          MANTEL-HAENSZEL MODEL APPLIED TO META ANALYSIS
                          (2002, with John Duffy) Statistics in Medicine   

                      4. COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION  (2003, with O. Papasouliotis)
                             Encyclopedia of Environmetrics

                      5.** A POISSON MODEL FOR IDENTIFYING CHARACTERISTIC SIZE
                          EFFECTS IN FREQUENCY DATA
 (2001, with O. Papasouliotis and
                           Ian Main) Journal of Geophysical Research

                      6 THE SAFARI CAT DATA, PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND 
                          POSSIBLY MONOTONIC POPULATION PROPORTIONS
                          (2005, with John Hsu) UCSB, Unpublished Manuscript

                      7 BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR MODEL CHOICE
                          (2006, with John Hsu) UCSB, Unpublished Manuscript, a bit flawed             

                      8** .LONG RANGE CRITICAL POINT DYNAMICS IN OILFIELD
                          FLOW RATE DATA (2006, with Ian Main et al)
                          Geophysical Research Letters

                      9. HYDROCARBON RECOVERY FROM A HYDROCARBON RESERVOIR
                           (2006, with Ian Main et al) International Patent

                     10.** THE STATISTICAL RESERVOIR MODEL: CALIBRATING FAULTS
                           AND FRACTURES AND PREDICTING RESERVOIR RESPONSE TO
                           WATER FLOOD (2007, with Ian Main et al) Geological Society London

                                This and Low et al (1981) are my two best joint applied papers. 
                 They seem to have been seminal in Medicine and in Geophysics. Orestis and I 
                  contributed the key statistical ideas to the Geophysics paper,

                11 Numerous international posts as moderator Mental Health Discussions                                        Edinburgh (2015-date)

                     12. ON ANALYSING THE SCOTTISH CRIME DATA, AND MENTAL 
                           HEALTH (2015)
                           Thomas Hoskyns Leonard Blog
                                
                         (with John Hsu) International Journal of Statistics and Probability 2017
                

                     14ALL ABOUT ATTENTION DEFICIT DISORDER (2019)  Self-published, in preparation.

                    DISCUSSION PAPER ON SPATIAL PROCESSES TO ISBA,
                                     BAYESIAN ANALYSIS (2022). 

                      WOW! I HAVE NOW PUBLISHED IN THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNALS FOR 50 YEARS

                          


                      I have also self-published over 100 poems and published about 10 poems in church publications, the Broughton Spurtle and elsewhere. My short story Joe's Mole (2012) is published in an obscure book. Three earlier self-published novels will soon be removed from circulation, as soon as BT turn off my now obsolete website 

                           


                                  

                              
                               Tom, aged 67, reading a poem to the 'Blind Poetics'
                                performance group, in the Blind Poet Bar, Edinburgh