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Thursday, 30 June 2016
Wednesday, 29 June 2016
Brexit: "Bayesian" statistics renamed "Laplacian" statistics
June 27, 2016By John K. Kruschke
(This article was originally published at Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, and syndicated atStatsBlogs.)With the U.K. leaving the E.U., it's time for "Bayesian" to exit its titular role and be replaced by "Laplacian".
Various historians (e.g., Dale, 1999; McGrayne, 2011; as cited in DBDA2E) have argued that despite Bayes and Price having published the basic formula first, it was Laplace who did all the heavy lifting to develop the methods. Laplace was French, while Bayes and Price were English.
On the other hand, Bayes did attend the University of Edinburgh, and lived around London, so maybe he would have voted to stay!
This humorous implication of Brexit was suggested by a participant at a workshop I presented in St. Gallen, Switzerland, last week, after I briefly described the history above and showed the book photographed at Bayes' tomb and at Laplace's memorial. I have forgotten who it was that made the joke. If the originator of the joke is reading this, please put a comment below or send me an email!
On the other hand, Bayes did attend the University of Edinburgh, and lived around London, so maybe he would have voted to stay! (Diego Andres Perez Ruiz)
Sunday, 26 June 2016
Amazing and reflective drive up.
I detoured via the mountains of Glenshee and right into the heart of the Cairngorms, much deeper then I'd been before.
So many valleys and scree hills, ox-bow lakes and glens.
The road snaked and wound around the bottom of many valleys like itself was a stream.
I stopped briefly at Glenshee Ski Centre, where I had thick lentil soup, tea and a chicken piece.
I set off again on a downward slope of a road that seemed to roll on for ever and ever!
Each meander of this road revealed new scenery that makes your heart skip a beat.
The sides of the road are marked with tall red and white stripy poles. These mark the road when it's covered in snow.
Some of the peaks had snow on them.
The weather on the summits was a mixture of brilliant sunshine, fork lightning and snow, all at once! It was crazy!
Driving through the thickets of trees and forests, I stopped a few times to listen to the sound of absolute silence. If I strained, I could probably hear the trees growing!
So that was my journey northbound towards rural Aberdeenshire!
Saturday, 25 June 2016
PLEASE SIGN AND SHARE
We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum
2185785 signatures so far!!
SHAME ON YOU, BORIS
BORIS DENIES HE CONCEDED DEFEAT
BORIS JOHNSON (Wiki)
Johnson is a controversial figure in British politics and journalism. Supporters have praised him as an entertaining, humorous, and popular figure with appeal beyond traditional Conservative voters. Critics have accused him of laziness and dishonesty, using racist and homophobic language, and elitism. The author of various books, he is also the subject of several biographies and a number of fictionalised portrayals.
BORIS IN ANGRY CONFRONTATION WITH CAGE DIRECTOR
WAS BORIS RIGHT TO APOLOGIZE FOR HIS CRASS BEHEADING COMMENTS?
JUAN CARLOS MARTINEZ-OVANDO
SAVAGE AWARD (2012)
Juan Carlos received the prestigious Leonard J.Savage Award in 2012,
for his truly outstandin g PH.D, thesis,
"Contributions to Bayesian nonparametric modeling of time series data'"
which was completed in 2011 under the supervision of Professor Stephen Walker at the University of Kent in Canterbury, My own main contribution to this area is described in my paper 'Density Estimation, Stochastic Processes, and Prior Information' (JRSSB, 1978, with discussion). That certainly dates me!
BAYESIAN INFERENCE IN ASSET ALLOCATION (VIDEO)
Friday, 24 June 2016
Thursday, 23 June 2016
Tuesday, 21 June 2016
Monday, 20 June 2016
From Cabaret at ISBA Conference in Corsica, June 2016
Brad Carlin Tom, this is the Imposteriors, which has been our name since we co-won the JSM Talent Show in Aug 2014. Full details here:
THE IMPOSTERIORS, BAYESIAN BAND