BAYESIAN PREDICTION OF FOOTBALL RESULTS
by Jean-Louis Foulley
Journal de la Société Française de Statistique
,
Vol. 156
No. 2 38-50
http://www.sfds.asso.fr/journal
© Société Française de Statistique et Société Mathématique de France (2015) ISSN: 2102-6238
,
Vol. 156
No. 2 38-50
http://www.sfds.asso.fr/journal
© Société Française de Statistique et Société Mathématique de France (2015) ISSN: 2102-6238
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Thanks a lot Tom for this information about the next meeting of the RSS Young statisticians section devoted to soccer matches prediction.
ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY EDINBURGH (26th January 2016)
Tuesday 26th January 2016 "RSS Young Statisticians' Section (YSS) Event:"
Statistics for soccer matches prediction Speaker: Dr. Robert Mastrodomenico
Affiliation: Global Sports Statistics, also RSS Honorary officer for Membership
Time of the talk: 6:20 - 7pm (wine reception from 5.30 - 6:20pm)
Venue: International Centre for Mathematical Sciences Edinburgh (ICMS)
Address: 15 South College Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9AA
Registration here.This is a free event open to everyone. Your registration would be useful for the organisers to know how many people are likely to attend, so please complete the registration below. Thanks!
Abstract: The increased data in sports has provided statisticians with the tools to build models of sporting events. This talk will look to show how data from soccer matches can be used to create models with the ability to predict upcoming matches. Starting from a very simple approach we will show how a modified Poisson approach is able to characterise the dynamics of the beautiful game. Following from the model definition we fit it on data from England and show how the output can be used in predicting games from the English Premier League.
Rob as RSS Honorary officer for Membership, will also discuss the merits of being a member drawing on my experiences from being involved with RSS young statisticians' section (YSS) and Council
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Thanks a lot Tom for this information about the next meeting of the RSS Young statisticians section devoted to soccer matches prediction.
The paper by Baio and Blangiardo advocates the use of Poisson models for the numbers of goals scored by the 2 competing teams.
It is good model. I already used for the 2012 Euro that took place in Poland and Ukraine but taking into account in addition the correlation between the attack and defence abilities of a team (what they propose in the discussion at the bottom of page 10).
Predictions are usually easier for championships than for tournaments due to a balance design applied to championships. It would be interesting to see what this model is doing in tournaments such as UEFA Champions League and FIFA World Cups.
My approach is basically different in the sense that I updated information concerning the parameters of the model from one year to the next and I also take into account external information on team results in other competitions.
The paper by Baio and Blangiardo advocates the use of Poisson models for the numbers of goals scored by the 2 competing teams.
It is good model. I already used for the 2012 Euro that took place in Poland and Ukraine but taking into account in addition the correlation between the attack and defence abilities of a team (what they propose in the discussion at the bottom of page 10).
Predictions are usually easier for championships than for tournaments due to a balance design applied to championships. It would be interesting to see what this model is doing in tournaments such as UEFA Champions League and FIFA World Cups.
My approach is basically different in the sense that I updated information concerning the parameters of the model from one year to the next and I also take into account external information on team results in other competitions.
A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF
FOOTBALL RESULTS
by Gianluca Baio and Marta A. Blangiardo
Baio, G; Blangiardo, M; (2010) Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of football results. Journal of Applied Statistics , 37 (2) 253 - 264.
PROBABILITY AND RISK: THE PROBLEM WITH PREDICTING
FOOTBALL RESULTS
by Norman Fenton
STATISTICS IN SPORTS: AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
ARTICLE IN THE ECONOMIST
STATISTICS IN SPORTS AND HEALTH (UCL)
YOUTH SPORTS STATISTICS
STATISTICS AT DCMS
ARTICLE IN SIAM
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