STATISTICS IN SPORT

                                                                                

                            BAYESIAN PREDICTION OF FOOTBALL RESULTS

                                                      by Jean-Louis Foulley

Journal de la Société Française de Statistique

,

Vol. 156

No. 2 38-50

http://www.sfds.asso.fr/journal

© Société Française de Statistique et Société Mathématique de France (2015) ISSN: 2102-6238

Journal de la Société Française de Statistique

,

Vol. 156

No. 2 38-50

http://www.sfds.asso.fr/journal

© Société Française de Statistique et Société Mathématique de France (2015) ISSN: 2102-6238

                                                                         

             

Jean-Louis FOULLEY
to me

Thanks a lot Tom for this information about the next meeting of the RSS Young statisticians section devoted to soccer matches prediction.

                            ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY EDINBURGH (26th January 2016)

Tuesday 26th January 2016 "RSS Young Statisticians' Section (YSS) Event:"

Statistics for soccer matches prediction
Speaker: Dr. Robert Mastrodomenico
Affiliation: Global Sports Statistics, also RSS Honorary officer for Membership

Time of the talk: 6:20 - 7pm (wine reception from 5.30 - 6:20pm)
Venue: International Centre for Mathematical Sciences Edinburgh (ICMS)
Address: 15 South College Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9AA
Registration here.This is a free event open to everyone. Your registration would be useful for the organisers to know how many people are likely to attend, so please complete the registration below. Thanks!
Abstract: The increased data in sports has provided statisticians with the tools to build models of sporting events. This talk will look to show how data from soccer matches can be used to create models with the ability to predict upcoming matches. Starting from a very simple approach we will show how a modified Poisson approach is able to characterise the dynamics of the beautiful game. Following from the model definition we fit it on data from England and show how the output can be used in predicting games from the English Premier League.

Rob as RSS Honorary officer for Membership, will also discuss the merits of being a member drawing on my experiences from being involved with RSS young statisticians' section (YSS) and Council

From Jean-Louis FOULLEY
to me

Thanks a lot Tom for this information about the next meeting of the RSS Young statisticians section devoted to soccer matches prediction.

The paper by Baio and Blangiardo advocates the use of Poisson models for the numbers of goals scored by the 2 competing teams.

It is good model. I already used for the 2012 Euro that took place in Poland and Ukraine but taking into account in addition the correlation between the attack and defence abilities of a team (what they propose in the discussion at the bottom of page 10).

Predictions are usually easier for championships than for tournaments due to a balance design applied  to championships. It would be interesting to see what this model is doing in tournaments such as UEFA Champions League and FIFA World Cups.

My approach is basically different in the sense that I updated information concerning the parameters of the model from one year to the next and I also take into account external information on team results in other competitions. 

                            A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF
                            FOOTBALL RESULTS

                                          by   Gianluca Baio  and Marta A. Blangiardo


                                                                             

Baio, G; Blangiardo, M; (2010) Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of football results. Journal of Applied Statistics , 37 (2) 253 - 264. 

                            PROBABILITY AND RISK: THE PROBLEM WITH PREDICTING
                            FOOTBALL RESULTS

                                                                by Norman Fenton


                                                                                 

 


                            STATISTICS IN SPORTS: AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION


                                                                               

                           ARTICLE IN THE ECONOMIST



                                                                               

                           STATISTICS IN SPORTS AND HEALTH (UCL)


                           YOUTH SPORTS STATISTICS


                           STATISTICS AT DCMS


                           ARTICLE IN SIAM

HOW CHILDHOOD TRAUMA MAY AFFECT HEALTH FOR A LIFETIME

                                                                                 

                                                    VIDEO (NADIA BURKE HARRIS)


Childhood trauma isn’t something you just get over as you grow up. Pediatrician Nadine Burke Harris explains that the repeated stress of abuse, neglect and parents struggling with mental health or substance abuse issues has real, tangible effects on the development of the brain. This unfolds across a lifetime, to the point where those who’ve experienced high levels of trauma are at triple the risk for heart disease and lung cancer. An impassioned plea for pediatric medicine to confront the prevention and treatment of trauma, head-on.

NOTE THAT CHILDHOOD TRAUMA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH OVERDIAGNOSIS FOR ADHD

THE SLEEP ROOM

                                                                               

                                                           THE SLEEP ROOM  (VIDEO)


Based on a true story, this production relates the tale of Canadian mind-control victims from the early 1950's, the CIA funds a Montreal psychiatric hospital to do mind-control experiments on patients in what has become known as "Project MK-ULTRA". Thirty-some years later, the patients want justice

An excerpt (A) from 'THE GRAND OLIGARCHS OF QINSATORIX'

Here is a draft excerpt (A) from my new novel THE GRAND OLIGARCHS OF QINSATORIX (in preparation)

                                                                        

                                                                    

CHAPTER 1: THE FISH ROT FROM THE TOP DOWN

During the afternoon of the summer solstice of Anno Domini 2412. Her Imperial Highness the Crown Princess Natasha of Qinsatorix, reputedly the most influential interstellar oligarch of them all, lay buck-naked on her turquoise satin couch on the Christi-Crispus patio as an exaltation of sparrowhawks and a richesse of martingales circled overhead, and the chaffo-finches chirped in the fragrant Okyfenoky bushes.

Meanwhile, a decilupuss and carriage came speeding along the shore of Lake Nefertiti. The decilupuss, a ten-legged wolf-like creature with a loud purr, was ridden bareback and at full gallop by an Apollo lizard slave girl. The plucky slave was closely pursued by the ornately decorated dragon-shaped carriage, which was packed with partying Sunrise Badger fans celebrating the unexpected victory of their University football team in the Cotton Bowl.

To the right, the purple and green Fantasia trees on Picnic Point stretched towards the murky orange horizon as the Aton Sunstar, the Star of Bethlehem, shimmered overhead. To the left, a fleet of naval yachts spread their colourful sails and fired their ceremonial boom-drones through the clouds as they sped towards the Gates of Achilles and the mighty Tiber beyond. In the foreground, the blushing pink roses seemed to weep for times which could have been but which never were.

The Imperial Icarian Palace in Trivoli, the capital of our parallel Universe sister planet Qinsatorix, bore a distinct resemblance to a long-legged turtle. Its upper floors were encapsulated by a huge platinum shell, and the Babylonian Gardens stretched from its acanthus-covered Corinthian feet to the lake path. And over four thousand years of proud Icarian history were recorded on murals and tapestries decorating the walls and ceilings of the palace corridors,

Princess Natasha's spacious and capriciously decorated apartment was housed in one of the 'feet of the turtle'. While she enjoyed entertaining her relatives and intimate friends in the Von Coburg drawing and quartering room, she would sometimes gladly escape through the crystal glass French windows to seek solace on her delightfully tranquil patio.

Natasha, who'd recently turned sweet twenty-three, was only half-Icarian. She was nevertheless as golden-skinned as her illustrious father and sported her own brand of curiously-shaped breasts, together with a bright red obloid instead of a tummy button, and a green pubie-shunter. As she'd been physically adjusted and mind controlled as a child, she also boasted a highly complex implanted entongulator rather than a common or garden tongue.

When the princess rubbed her obloid she did so quite compulsively while reciting the three times table. On the occasion in question, she also thought, with aristocratic cunning, about her smart-arse of a husband Prince Hamlet who'd been recently transposed in irons from Denmark to help her breed the Imperial stock. It'll be a challenge keeping that human monster under control, she concluded. While he may be of some help in political terms, it would be dangerous to let him become too powerful.

Not to forget my spot-ridden twin brother Caleb, pondered the princess. He could try to join forces with one of the top brass military commanders. Thank goodness I popped out of my dear mother's womb a couple of minutes before he did.

And Caleb might even form an alliance with the Pelimodes, realised the princess, Maybe we should scorch-fry Southern Artica and exterminate those God-damned birds once and for all. The global warming would doubtlessly help the economy, particularly in the Archipeligos. All those interstellar tourists with their roubles, eurocents, and vulcanos----.

Natasha noticed a gardener sweeping the leaves and honeysuckle petals off the beautifully maintained light-blue lawn. As befitting a squat-nosed Apollo of the impoverished Quasitundo tribe which had recently migrated in desperation from the Inner Moon, his head was pear-shaped, his face and eyes were metallic and square, and his body resembled that of a well-groomed gorillochimpus.

The homely Apollo moved closer. When he grinned, he flashed a mouthful of emeralds for teeth, Natasha was so intrigued that she threw her legs in the air and touched her pubie-shunter though in the extremely delicate and refined manner that befitted the time-honoured courting customs of her Icarian ancestors. The Apollo moved even closer, and gawped.

“What do you have to say for yourself, my good fellow?” inquired the princess.

MYSTERIOUS DEATHS AT THE BBC

                                                                              

                                      MYSTERIOUS DEATHS AT THE BBC



                                                                               

A NEW PROOF OF THE LIKELIHOOD PRINCIPLE BY GREG GANDENBERGER

                                                                                 

                                           ARTICLE BY GREG GANDENBERGER


                     Both Deborah Mayo and Michael Evans have recently refuted Birnbaum's celebrated 1962 proof that the Likelihood Principle is implied by the Sufficiency and Conditionality Principles, However in this article. Greg Gandenberger, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Bristol. proves that the Likelihood Principle is implied by a combination of the Conditionality Principle and  a Weak Ancillary Realisability Principle. The latter essentially says that one may replace the binary mathematical ancillary in a minimal experiment with an experimental ancillary without changing the evidential meanings of the outcomes.

              The Likelihood Principle is an important cornerstone of the model-based Bayesian inferential paradigm. It is as yet unclear to me whether the assumptions involved in the new Realisability Principle are weak enough when compared with the Likelihood Principle itself to be of really useful purpose. However, Gandenberger's proof gives lots of credibility to the conceptual ideas invoked by Birnbaum in 1962.



                                      GREG GANDENBERGER



           DEBORAH MAYO: BAYESIAN DETRACTOR EXTRA-ORDINAIRE



ON RE-EVALUATING BAYESIAN AXIOMATIZATIONS OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY AND UTILITY
                                          

LICHTENSTEIN CASTLE (WURTTEMBERG)

                                                                              

                                                 LICHTENSTEIN  CASTLE (Wiki)





                                                                          

WURTTEMBERG (Wiki)