1948-2023 . Retired Statistician, Poet, author, historian and campaigner. Co-founder of International Society for Bayesian Analysis and of the Edinburgh All Comers Writers Club and Participant in the 2019 UCL Eugenics Inquiry.
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Saturday, 16 January 2016
GARY KASPAROV, Chess Champion and Inspiring Man of Intellect
GARY KASPAROV Wiki
HOME PAGE
THE CHESS GAMES OF GARY KASPAROV
CHESS CORNER
THE MAN WHO WOULD BE KING
INTERVIEW: PUTIN NEED WARS
LIFE'S WORK (Interview)
NEXT MOVE? (Smithsonian.com)
A FRIENDLY WRITERS CLUB IN LEITH, EDINBURGH
EDINBURGH ALL-COMERS WRITERS CLUB (Website)
We meet at 7pm every Tuesday in the backroom of Sofi's Bar in Leith, Please
bring eight copies of up to six pages of your work to read and discuss.
PLEASE CONTACT US ON FACEBOOK
LINKS TO SOME OF OUR WRITERS AND POETS
AN ANTHOLOGY OF SCOTTISH CONSCIOUSNESS
A collection of poems composed by the Leith Walk Rhymers
Celtic Prayers for Joy
A Celtic Prayer on Joy
As the hand is made for holding and the eye for seeing,
You have fashioned me for joy.
Share with me the vision that finds that joy every...where.
In the wild violet’s beauty;
In the lark’s melody;
In the face of a steadfast man;
In a child’s smile;
In a mother’s love;
In the purity of Jesus.
A Maclean, Hebridean Altars, Moray Press, Edinburgh, 1937
Modified
n IRISH BLESSINGS AND PRAYERS
MORE IRISH BLESSINGS AND PRAYERS
Modified
n IRISH BLESSINGS AND PRAYERS
MORE IRISH BLESSINGS AND PRAYERS
Thursday, 14 January 2016
Excerpt (B) from THE GRAND OLIGARCHS OF QINSATORIX
CHAPTER 2: THE OLIGARCHS MEET IN COUNCIL
Copyright: Thomas Hoskyns Leonard January 2016
PRELIMINARY DRAFT VERSION
Princess Natasha was awoken the next morning by her Trinkon slave boy
when he came gingerly into her bedchamber with a mug of bongvole
bovril and three poached ostrolight eggs.
“Throw that grease-ridden tray over the piano,
slave-runt,”she commanded, “and how many rioters and terrorists
did the Praetorian Guard leave for dead on the palace lawns
yesterday?”
When the slave got rid of the breakfast tray it crashed into
a dusty framed portrait of the British ambassador which was leaning
against the wall.
“Only thirteen, Sister Natasha,” he replied, quite
forlornly. “The Daily Inquisitor reports
that the soldiers showed
considerable constraint
and expressed a modicum of
sympathy for the victims.”
“Good,---hummmm---
Osamu. You
may advise the Vestal Virgins to bring my Robes of State.”
“Yes, Sister Natasha,”
replied Osamu Mangasarian,
more assertively. “Three bags
full, Sister Natasha. And one for the little chump who starves
down the lane.”
“Funny ha ha!”
How empathetic of me, mused Natasha, to acknowledge the
little runt's Christian name. It was fun watching my narcissistic
twin brother putting him through his paces on the patio yesterday
afternoon though. And didn't I have a superb time in the steam room
and the St. Margo of Mystique Chamber later? Oh happy, happy, days!
Prince Adam of Eden was at his most excited, and feeling young for
his age, later that morning, when he met with an august group of VIPs
in the Lotus Room. Princess Natasha was among the last to arrive,
flourishing a hippo-horse whip and hauling her husband Prince Hamlet
along behind her on a chain attached to his metal-studded leather dog
collar. When she sat down on the Peacock Throne, the
determined-looking young man dutifully knelt at her feet and squashed
a couple of roaches with his bare hands.
“Sock it to them, Hammy!” yelled Adam, only to be gently
cuffed in the ear by his Aunt Ophelia.
Hamlet was muscular and bare-chested with ruffled raven hair,
and he was scantily dressed in a ragged grey kilt and wooden Dutch
clogs. In contrast, Natasha was attired in flowing silver robes and a
sapphire-ridden gold headpiece inset with three red reinmooses'
antlers.
A human beefeater with a gap in his teeth knocked on the door
with a mace and, after being bidden to enter by the princess,
announced, “Your Imperial Highness, I address you as the Chair
Wizard of this esteemed Council of State. The Grand High Yin requests
your permission to enter and lead the meeting.”
“So granted,” replied the princess, swishing Prince Hamlet's
scar-ridden back with her whip.
Prince Adam gasped when the cat-like felixian Trithagoras
Tullius Cicero strode into the room bearing the red boxes of office
and sat himself down on the Yin's High Chair at the far end of the
Oval Table of Caliburn. He looks as if he's running the show, thought
Adam.
“Your Imperial Highnesses and esteemed colleagues,”
announced Lord Trithagoras. “We all sadly grieve for Felixius, the
courageous Republican leader, and for the thirteen Citizens of
Qinsatorix who perished in such noble causes in Trivoli yesterday
afternoon.”
“May they rest in peace and rise in glory,” cried Prince
Caleb of Trystonia, to fairly general murmurings of approval. Adam
endeavoured to restrain himself from hissing.
“Perhaps we could initiate the proceedings by inducting
three new members into our Grand Oligarchy,” continued Trithagoras.
“Would the Prince Consort, the Prince Infanta, and Professor
Angervast Friedman-Kissinger please approach the Imperial Throne so
that they may be put to everlasting endurement by the Sacred Blessing
of Nebbararthurius? I also call upon the Prince Imperial to bring
forth the Dagger of Galahad with his hand on its resistant brand and
hand it to our much revered Chair Wizard, the Goddess of the
Antlers.”
Prince Hamlet of Denmark didn't have far to go. When he
swivelled around on his knees,
STATISTICS IN SPORT
BAYESIAN PREDICTION OF FOOTBALL RESULTS
by Jean-Louis Foulley
Journal de la Société Française de Statistique
,
Vol. 156
No. 2 38-50
http://www.sfds.asso.fr/journal
© Société Française de Statistique et Société Mathématique de France (2015) ISSN: 2102-6238
,
Vol. 156
No. 2 38-50
http://www.sfds.asso.fr/journal
© Société Française de Statistique et Société Mathématique de France (2015) ISSN: 2102-6238
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Thanks a lot Tom for this information about the next meeting of the RSS Young statisticians section devoted to soccer matches prediction.
ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY EDINBURGH (26th January 2016)
Tuesday 26th January 2016 "RSS Young Statisticians' Section (YSS) Event:"
Statistics for soccer matches prediction Speaker: Dr. Robert Mastrodomenico
Affiliation: Global Sports Statistics, also RSS Honorary officer for Membership
Time of the talk: 6:20 - 7pm (wine reception from 5.30 - 6:20pm)
Venue: International Centre for Mathematical Sciences Edinburgh (ICMS)
Address: 15 South College Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9AA
Registration here.This is a free event open to everyone. Your registration would be useful for the organisers to know how many people are likely to attend, so please complete the registration below. Thanks!
Abstract: The increased data in sports has provided statisticians with the tools to build models of sporting events. This talk will look to show how data from soccer matches can be used to create models with the ability to predict upcoming matches. Starting from a very simple approach we will show how a modified Poisson approach is able to characterise the dynamics of the beautiful game. Following from the model definition we fit it on data from England and show how the output can be used in predicting games from the English Premier League.
Rob as RSS Honorary officer for Membership, will also discuss the merits of being a member drawing on my experiences from being involved with RSS young statisticians' section (YSS) and Council
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Thanks a lot Tom for this information about the next meeting of the RSS Young statisticians section devoted to soccer matches prediction.
The paper by Baio and Blangiardo advocates the use of Poisson models for the numbers of goals scored by the 2 competing teams.
It is good model. I already used for the 2012 Euro that took place in Poland and Ukraine but taking into account in addition the correlation between the attack and defence abilities of a team (what they propose in the discussion at the bottom of page 10).
Predictions are usually easier for championships than for tournaments due to a balance design applied to championships. It would be interesting to see what this model is doing in tournaments such as UEFA Champions League and FIFA World Cups.
My approach is basically different in the sense that I updated information concerning the parameters of the model from one year to the next and I also take into account external information on team results in other competitions.
The paper by Baio and Blangiardo advocates the use of Poisson models for the numbers of goals scored by the 2 competing teams.
It is good model. I already used for the 2012 Euro that took place in Poland and Ukraine but taking into account in addition the correlation between the attack and defence abilities of a team (what they propose in the discussion at the bottom of page 10).
Predictions are usually easier for championships than for tournaments due to a balance design applied to championships. It would be interesting to see what this model is doing in tournaments such as UEFA Champions League and FIFA World Cups.
My approach is basically different in the sense that I updated information concerning the parameters of the model from one year to the next and I also take into account external information on team results in other competitions.
A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF
FOOTBALL RESULTS
by Gianluca Baio and Marta A. Blangiardo
Baio, G; Blangiardo, M; (2010) Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of football results. Journal of Applied Statistics , 37 (2) 253 - 264.
PROBABILITY AND RISK: THE PROBLEM WITH PREDICTING
FOOTBALL RESULTS
by Norman Fenton
STATISTICS IN SPORTS: AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
ARTICLE IN THE ECONOMIST
STATISTICS IN SPORTS AND HEALTH (UCL)
YOUTH SPORTS STATISTICS
STATISTICS AT DCMS
ARTICLE IN SIAM
Saturday, 9 January 2016
HOW CHILDHOOD TRAUMA MAY AFFECT HEALTH FOR A LIFETIME
VIDEO (NADIA BURKE HARRIS)
Childhood trauma isn’t something you just get over as you grow up. Pediatrician Nadine Burke Harris explains that the repeated stress of abuse, neglect and parents struggling with mental health or substance abuse issues has real, tangible effects on the development of the brain. This unfolds across a lifetime, to the point where those who’ve experienced high levels of trauma are at triple the risk for heart disease and lung cancer. An impassioned plea for pediatric medicine to confront the prevention and treatment of trauma, head-on.
NOTE THAT CHILDHOOD TRAUMA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH OVERDIAGNOSIS FOR ADHD
THE SLEEP ROOM
THE SLEEP ROOM (VIDEO)
Based on a true story, this production relates the tale of Canadian mind-control victims from the early 1950's, the CIA funds a Montreal psychiatric hospital to do mind-control experiments on patients in what has become known as "Project MK-ULTRA". Thirty-some years later, the patients want justice
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