INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
ISBA BULLETIN JUNE 2015
Includes biography of Bruno de Finetti who attempted, without rigorous
success, to axiomatise subjective probability, and is most
celebrated for his exchangeability theorems.
Also includes an interview of the Braziliab Bayesian forecaster Helio Mignon, who
obtained his Ph.D. at the University of Warwick
According to Helio's Ph.D. supervisor, the late lamented P.Jeffrey Harrison,
'The best forecasts are those which are made after the event'.
Harrison also once said
'I love exchangeability. You exchange you prior when you've seen your posterior.'
Helio's pretty good though.
See also A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS
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