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Tuesday, 6 June 2023

UPDATED: ON THE DELUGE OF IQ AND MENTAL TEST SCORES IN SCOTLAND

 




                                                                                



                                                                COPYRIGHT TOM LEONARD

In 1925, Sir Godfrey Thomson (1881-1955) was appointed Director of Studies at Moray House School of Education, and Professor of Education (the Bell Chair) at Edinburgh University. See Robertson (1964) for the ‘official’ eugenics-free version, which seems to have been written on behalf of the University of Edinburgh.

Thomson worked in the eugenics-ridden area of psychometrics. He was most famous for his prolific use of mental tests and IQ tests for children and adults, The IQ tests followed Alfred Binet (see Cherry, 2023 ),Francis Galton (see All Psych [1]) and Cyril Burt (see Rose, 1979). See also the diagram on p23 of Penrose (1949), and the discussion in Part 22: The not-so-Normal Distribution of my Introduction.

In short, intelligence tests provide inappropriate single-dimensional measures of a multi-faceted phenomenon, namely the spectrum of human abilities. Indeed, there is arguably no such thing as ‘human intelligence’. We are all simply humans with various abilities and disabilities. Intelligence tests don’t obviously measure ability at doing anything particularly useful.

Another problem with IQ tests is that they have been used e.g. by Galton and Penrose to falsely judge whether children were ‘mentally defective’. Another is that they are often ‘white-collar’ orientated,. While Godfrey Thomson advocated a comprehensive education of all children irrespective of class, the discriminatory 11 plus examinations were nevertheless in force in Scotland from 1944 to 1965. The IQ component of the 11 plus was prejudicial with regard to race and class and caused a high percentage of creative and productive children to have limited educational opportunities for ever

The Scottish Mental Survey of 1932 tested 87498 Scottish children who were born

in 1921, including44210 boys and 43288 girls (according to their own arbitrary

definitions of ‘boys’ and ‘girls’ that took no account of intersex), in total about 95% of all

Scottish children born in 1921 (See Scottish Mental Survey, 2021a) The objectives of the

Survey were to discover the rates of mental deficiency in Scotland and to judge the

distribution of intelligence throughout the community.

Each child in the survey took the Moray House Test No.12, which was designed
by Godfrey Thomson. The test did not estimate IQs. It had 71 items, eight practice items,
and two short picture tests. For a child judged mentally deficit, the test would have had
an immensely detrimental impact on the child’s future. Neurodiverse children risked
being falsely judged mentally deficit. Transgender neuro-diverse children risked being so
judged. As the choice of items would not have been orientation-sensitive, the test was
potentially orientation-biased.
In the Summer of 1932, a stratified but non-random sample of 817 of the children
took a Stanford-Binet IQ test. The correlation between the IQ scores and the Moray
House Test (MHT) Scores was about 0.8 .
Deary et al (2005,p378) fit a normal’ curve to a histogram of the observed MHT scored for the whole sample of children. The observed histogram is skew to the left and the normal curve provides a very poor fit. If a further child has an MHT score less than 10, then the normal curve exaggerates the evidence that the child should receive a ‘special’ education.
In his presentation to the Eugenics Society of February 1946, Godfrey Thomson (1946) expresses some quite eugenic ideas relating to the apparently declining ‘national trend of national intelligence. He regretted that children chosen at 11 or I2 to prolong and increase the difficulty level of their course of education were likely, on average, to marry later (if at all) and to have fewer children (if any) than those who were not chosen. Since this was still more the case with those chosen later to enter colleges and universities, Thomson thought that the educational system of the country acted as a sieve to sift out the more intelligent and destroy their posterity.
Sir Godfrey estimated that there was a negative correlation of about -0.25 between the average ‘intelligence’ of children aged about 11, and the sizes of their families. He thought that this may have been largely due to the later marriages of intelligent people, their restraint in producing fewer children, and the inheritance of their intelligence by their offspring. The remainder of Sir Godfrey’s 1946 presentation was similarly eugenicist and Fisher-style heuristic.
At a conference in Edinburgh during March 1946, the directors and Executive Committee of The Scottish Council for Research Education (SCRE) met with David V. Glass of LSE and the leading eugenicists Alexander Carr-Saunders and John Fraser Roberts to discuss a repetition of the 1932 mental survey, in view of the presumed decline of national intelligence due to the differential birth-rate observed during the 1932 survey, as described above, (Deary et al, 2009, pp 16-17). Funding was provided by the Nuffield Foundation and the Eugenics Society to David Glass and the two leading eugenicists to finance the new research.
The SCRE decide to add a sociological survey to the mental test, based upon a sample rather than the population of school children. David Glass and the two leading eugenicists persuaded SCRE’s Executive Committee to agree to this extra survey, against the objections of its directors. The sociological survey was distributed to some 8000 children in a ‘36 day’ sample.
Sir Godfrey proceed to organise the Scottish Mental Health Survey of 1947 (See Lothian Birth Cohorts, 2021b).Almost all 1936-born Scottish school-children were given the same Moray House Test that had been used in the 1932 survey. MHT scores were obtained for 70805 children, including 35809 boys and 34996 girls.
Deary et al (2009, p23-25) describe the social implications of the 1947 survey, which also included the 36 day sample and a smaller sample for twins. There were associations between intelligence and age of mother, social class of the father, and occupancy rate of the rooms. These results were potentially exploitable by eugenicists.
Sir Godfrey interpreted the main results of the 1947 survey during his presentation to the Eugenics Society of October 1949 on ‘Intelligence and Fertility’ (See Thomson, 1950). The average MHT score for children of a particular family size decreased with family size, as it had for the children in the 1932 survey (In eugenic terms this would have been seen as justifying enforced birth control or reduced child allowances for mothers of low intelligence) Thomson had consequently expected the overall average MHT score to decrease over the years. He was therefore surprised that the average MHT score in 1947 was 36.7, a modest increase when compared with the average score 34.5 in 1932.
Sir Godfrey felt that he had been left with the apparent paradox that although the less intelligent seemed to be multiplying more rapidly than the intelligent, the average intelligence did not seem to be sinking. Much of the rest of his presentation comes across as a Galton-style spiel, as Thomson searched for plausible explanations of the paradox.
When I discussed this paradox with Eagle Allan in Sandy Bell’s on 7 June 2023, Allan said that it didn’t compare with the paradoxes: ‘Houses are built overnight on beauty spots, and yet they don’t revamp the buildings in other areasand ‘During Covid the homeless problem was temporarily solved during a housing crisis.’ Then a Professor of Romanticism and Story-Telling from the University of Mississippi joined the conversation.
While pouring unadulterated praise on the previously long-buried and forgotten Godfrey Thomson, Deary et al (2009) describe the three co-authors’ own various follow-up studies , which investigate the more recent intelligence levels of participants in the 1932 and 1947 surveys, and try to relate the apparent changes in intelligence to various biological and socio-behavioural factors. A major problem with this is the unreliability and only partial relevance of the dependent variable, namely ‘intelligence’, as evaluated by a mental test or IQ test. For example, the scores on the intelligence test are likely to be affected by how the questions were framed, and as to how the questions may have been chosen for the white middle class, rather than, say, trans working class people of colour.
Deary’s late second co-author John M. Starr was a physician specialising in geriatric medicine. Whatever their much-esteemed and ecstatically lauded abilities in interdisciplinary areas, I have severe misgivings regarding the three co-authors’ data analyses and statistics. From 1992 to 2008, Lawrence Whalley was a distinguished professor of mental health at the University of Aberdeen. If only our ‘headshrinkers’ could get around to checking their statistical assumptions a bit more often. Not to even worry about such assumptions would appear to be a distinct form of group craziness.
Some numerate demented elderly people in Edinburgh have been known to retain high mathematical skills, but few other skills. Their performance on a mental test would depend upon how many items involving numbers it contained. See Rose (1979) and Richardson (2022) for other deep objections. On pp 192-197 of his 2022 book, Ken Richardson lists 16 common misunderstandings of intelligence. Most of these had been misconceived by Ian Deary during his writings.

Ken Richardson has written several books highly critical of IQ testing and related concepts in the field of psychometrics such as Spearman’s g and s factors of intelligence. Ken contends that the definitions of intelligence, and the assumptions of its causes, "lie at the core of political ideologies", and has called for IQ tests to be banned.

To claim that changes in badly measured intelligence help to predict cognitive decline or help to predict an old age malady could therefore serve to confuse the diagnoses for the vulnerable, elderly, and infirm. It would sometimes be best not to let the elderly know that they may be likely to have dementia in the future. Many elderly people simply want to live in the present. I would be most concerned if MHT scores, or anything similar, were used more generally in medical diagnosis or choice of treatment.
Medical students wishing to take specialist courses are frequently required to take IQ-type tests to qualify for entry to their course of interest (my podiatrist Jen Donegan, personal communication). This can creates biases in favour or against some ethnic groups. More generally, members of the work force are frequently required to take these confounded tests even though they bear scant relation to what the person will be actually working on.
I have severe problems with the statistical procedures employed by Deary et al (2009). As the data are either ‘ incomplete population data’ or ‘a stratum of incomplete population data’ none of the numerous p-values they quote are justified since there is no obviously valid choice of sampling model. That includes any binomial, multinomial model or logistic regression model, and maybe every sampling model which has ever been conceived. Hence any claims Deary et al make throughout their book of ‘significant differences’ are almost totally lacking in statistical justification.
Ian Deary OBE. FBA, FRSE, FMedSci was originally a psychiatrist. He is, as of June 2023, Professor of Differential Psychology at the University of Edinburgh,, and seems to be highly political.. He is known for work in the fields of intelligence, cognitive ageing, cognitive epidemiology, and personality.
Professor Deary is not obviously a eugenicist, though he could be so over-focussed that he is unintentionally enabling eugenicists. He obtained his Ph.D. in 1983 under the supervision of the notorious racist, pro-sterilization eugenicist, and sexist paedophile supporter Chris Brand, the former Oxford Don who was fired by the University of Edinburgh in 1997 after arguing in favour of way underage sex as long as the participants are intelligent enough (Source: Wikipedia). I don’t think that bright twelve year olds should have to put up with this sort of verbiage.
Deary has published jointly with Chris Brand on ‘Intelligence and Inspection Time’ (Brand and Deary, 1982), on ‘Is Intelligence Illusionary?’ (Brand, Deary et al., 1991) and on ‘Personality and Society’ (Brand, Egan, and Deary,1994).
Brand’s papers should be read with circumspection. For example, Sue Freshwater has advised me (personal communication) that the article by Brand, Freshwater, and Dockrell (1989), which controversially suggested a massive rise in IQ levels in the West, was scientifically flawed and involved ‘incorrect data’.
Professor Neil Turner, a leading Quaker and a top kidney expert and undergraduate dean in the University of Edinburgh School of Medicine was keen to advise me in early 2019 about the continuing work on the Scottish Mental Surveys, and said that it was ‘one of the few times that they got it right’. I don’t quite know how to interpret Professor Turner’s advice, and don’t quite understand where he was coming from.
7.15 MANKIND QUARTERLY
In 1959, the International Association for the Advancement of Ethnology and Eugenics (IAAEE) was founded in Edinburgh (Psychology Wiki [1]). The IAAEE established a branch in the United States through the personal agency of Lord Malcolm Douglas, a member of the British Cliveden Set which supported Adolf Hitler during World War II. The association’s director A. James McGregor asserted his concerns about congenital birth defects and the reproduction of the mentally retarded, rather than racial matters.
The association published the extremely right wing journal Mankind Quarterly out of Edinburgh. See Mankind Quarterly(2023). The first issue was published in July 1960, by its first editor Stockbridge-based Robert Gayre out of the editor’s townhouse at 1 Darnaway St. See Rational Wiki [1] Other members of its editorial board over the years included the arch-eugenicists Corrado Gini, Cyril Burt, and Hans Eysenck, at least two of whom have been accused of fudging their data. The cover page of the first edition displayed a vignette showing white and Asian heads looking upwards, and beneath them a black head captioned ‘H Africanus’. Gayre later falsely claimed that the vignette wasn’t racist.

Deary (1991) published a paper in Mankind Quarterly which includes highly eloquent discussions of various racist, genetic, and non-racist explanations for racial differences in IQ-type scores. I wonder whether the racial differences were largely caused by patriarchal, pro-gender-binary choices of items in the tests, though this is only a, possibly intelligent, suggestion.




Sir Godfrey Thomson (1881-1955) was appointed Director of Studies at Moray House 
James Robertson (1964) Godfrey Thomson (Extracts of invited lecture, Moray House School) https://www.ed.ac.uk/education/about-us/maps-estates-history/history/godfrey-thomson.
Kendra Cherry (2023) Alfred Binet and the History of IQ testing (VeryWell Mind) https://www.verywellmind.com/history-of-intelligence-testing-2795581

All Psych (2021) Intelligence (Psychology 101) https://allpsych.com/psychology101/states_of_mind/intelligence/

Lothian Birth Cohorts (2021a) The Scottish Mental Survey of 1932

https://www.ed.ac.uk/lothian-birth-cohorts/history/scottish-mental-survey-1932


Ian Deary, Alison Pattie, Valerie Wilson, Lawrence Whalley (2005)The Cognitive Cost of Being a Twin: Two Whole-Population Surveys Twin Research and Human Genetics 8 (4) pp. 376–383 C:/Users/user/Downloads/Deary20200520Twin20Research20Hum20Genetics20cognitive20cost20of20being20a20twin.pdf
Ian Deary, Alison Pattie, Valerie Wilson, Lawrence Whalley (2005)The Cognitive Cost of Being a Twin: Two Whole-Population Surveys Twin Research and Human Genetics 8 (4)pp.376–383C:/Users/user/Downloads/Deary20200520Twin20Research20Hum20Genetics20cognitive20cost20of20being20a20twin.pdf

Godfrey Thomson (1946) The Trend of National Intelligence Eugenics Review Apr; 38,pp 9–18. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2986315/pdf/eugenrev00247-0018.pdf


Ian Deary, Lawrence Whalley, and John Starr (2009). A lifetime of intelligence: follow-up studies of the Scottish Mental Surveys of 1932 and 1947. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.


Ken Richardson (2022) Understanding Intelligence-Understanding Life Cambridge University Press.


Lothian Birth Cohorts (2021b) The Scottish Mental Survey of 1947 (University of Edinburgh) https://www.ed.ac.uk/lothian-birth-cohorts/history/the-scottish-mental-survey-1947

 

Godfrey Thomson (1949) Invited talk to Eugenics Society with diagrams omitted, based on Thomson’s 1950 published article Intelligence and Fertility: The Scottish 1947 Survey in Eugenics Review 41 (4), pp 163-17 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2972905/pdf/eugenrev00072-0007.pdf


Chris Brand and Ian Deary (1982). Intelligence and ‘Inspection Time. On pp133-148 of Hans Eysenck (ed) A Model for Intelligence. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer
Chris Brand, Peter Caryl, Ian Deary, Vincent Eagle and Claudia Pagliari (1991) Is Intelligence Illusionary? The Lancet 337 (8742), pp 678-9
Chris Brand, Vincent Egan and Ian Deary (1994) Intelligence, personality and society: constructivist vs. essentialist possibilities, pp29-42 of Douglas.Detterman, ed, Current Topics in Human Intelligence 4. New York : Ablex https://gwern.net/doc/iq/1994-detterman-currentopicshumanintelligence-4-theoriesofintelligence.pdf
Chris Brand, Susan Freshwater, and W. Brian Dockerell (1989) Has there been a 'massive' rise in IQ levels in the West? Evidence from Scottish children. Irish Journal of Psychology10 (3), p388 -394.

Psychology Wiki [1] International Association for the Advancement of Ethnology and Eugenicshttps://psychology.fandom.com/wiki/International_Association_for_the_Advancement_of_Ethnology_and_Eugenics

                   Mankind Quarterly (2023) https://mankindquarterly.org/

                   Rational Wiki [1] Robert Gayre https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Robert_Gayre

Ian Deary (1991) Pandora’s Box and the Eskimo’s Nose Mankind Quarterly 32 (1-2), pp 153-159 https://docplayer.net/229848681-Pandora-s-box-and-the-eskimo-s-nose-ian-j-deary-university-of-edinburgh.html





 

Saturday, 3 June 2023

WAS THE GREAT STATISTICIAN GEORGE BOX A CLOSET EUGENICIST?

 





                   An excerpt from my draft book; 

             Lavender Rising: An Intersectional History of the LGBT+ Struggle

Lives as dreadful as Ronald Aylmer Fisher’s can have profound generational effects. George Box reportedly married illegally in America (according to English law), in order to become Fisher’s son-in-law (Irwin Guttman, Dennis Lindley, personal communication), while leaving his actual wife with his children in England. Lindley, the 'Living God of the Bayesians' had described Box’s marriage to Joan Fisher in very negative terms, and this caused a lengthy feud between Box and Lindley (Box, personal communication).

Box depended heavily for his academic fame, credibility and rationality on his co-authors who included, among many others, the pre-eminent statisticians Gwilym Jenkins, Stuart Hunter, Norman Draper and George Tiao. My colleague Michael Meyer thought that Box ‘got away with it’ because of his occasional scientific ‘nuances’ and flashes of apparently deep insight.

When I joined George Box and his second (or third out of four if Irwin is to be believed) wife Joan Fisher-Box on Christmas Day 1979 in their plush mansion, Joan threw a fit while I was ahead in a second game of Scrabble, and she and her daughter fled to their rooms as if Armageddon had struck.

During early 1980, I effectively refuted George’s very strange heuristics in his interminably long, single-authored paper ( Box ,1980) by making his ‘prior predictive’ p-value for checking the sampling model look very silly when the sample size is large, after a neat piece of asymptotic mathematics. George promptly threw a fit and totally ignored my effective refutation of his much-hyped but utterly naive criterion.

Feeling as put down as Pynchon’s obsequious character, Teddy Bloat, I didn’t dare to publish my asymptotics in the discussion of Box’s much-acclaimed but deeply flawed 1980 invited paper to the Royal Statistical Society, particularly as he seemed to regard the paper as ‘another monument to his own greatness’. See Exercise 6.1.a on pp248-9 of Leonard and Hsu (1999) for the mathematical details which I published, with trepidation, 20 years after deriving them.

The question as to whether George E.P. Box (the vividly portrayed Croesus of sections 1.4, 1.5., and 1.9) was a closet-eugenicist will be addressed in detail elsewhere. His initial undergraduate training was in Chemistry, and his first post WW2 appointment was with the I.C.I. Dyestuffs division. He consulted with Ronald Fisher while working during WW2 on chemical warfare and the effects of poisonous gas on animals (Box, personal communication). I also recall Box’s post WW2 work on industrial chemicals and pharmaceuticals, chemical engineering, fractional factorial designs, Box-Wilson central composite designs, Box-Behnken designs, and Deming/ Taguchi-style total quality management ( See Moreno and Gitlow, 1999), and Box’s encouragement, on the quiet, at MRC of ‘Army Math’-style statistical research with military applications (‘lollipops’ for the generals).

Bisgaard (1992) extends an earlier paper on Quality Improvement by Box and Box’s much exploited and put upon graduate student from Gloucestershire, links several of the above-mentioned suspicious topics, and refers to much earlier papers out of Rothamsted Agricultural Research Station by the eugenicists Frank Yates and David Finney.

Box’s and Bisgaard’s research came out of the Center for Quality and Productivity Improvement on the notorious twelfth floor of the WARF building at UW Madison, where the Army Research Office and MRC no longer ruled. The research was instead financed by the right wing reactionary Alfred P. Sloan foundation. The material discussed by Bisgaard intersects with total quality management, and with the genetic justifications for experimental designs described by Mazumdar (1992, Ch3). This material has strong potential in terms of applications in eugenics.

As of 26 May 2023, this is all grist for the gander. While I strongly suspect that the much revered Box was a highly secretive eugenicist, the jury’s still out.

George Box liked Gilbert and Sullivan and the BBC Radio Goon Show, and wrote amusing scripts for the annual Department of Statistics Christmas Skits, some a bit biting in subtle sorts of ways. Maybe George is singing Gilbert and Sullivan’s ‘I’ve got a little list’ in his hereafter. For modern lyrics please listen to Suart (2015). The singer could have been hand-picked.

Richard Suart (2015) I’ve got a little list. English National Opera

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWo_3CIcTBQ


                                         


 

George Box (1980) Sampling and Bayes' Inference in Scientific Modelling and Robustness (with Discussion) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A. Series 143 (4), pp383-430


Thomas Leonard and John Hsu (1999) Bayesian Methods: An Analysis for Statisticians and Interdisciplinary Researchers. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.


Henry Moreno and Howard Gitlow (1999) A comparison of Plato's Republic and Deming's System of Profound Knowledge International Journal of Applied Quality Management 2 (1) pp25-40


Søren Bisgaard (1992)The Design and Analysis of Inner and Outer Array Experiments

CQPI Technical Report No.90, Center for Quality and Productivity Improvement (UW Madison) https://minds.wisconsin.edu/bitstream/handle/1793/69151/r090.pdf?sequence=1


Richard Suart (2015) I’ve got a little list. English National Opera

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWo_3CIcTBQ





Friday, 2 June 2023

PHRENOLOGY AND EUGENICS IN SCOTLAND

 













                  This is an incomplete excerpt from my book 

                    Lavender Rising; An Intersectional History of the LGBT+ Struggle (in preparation)

 

7.13  EUGENICS IN SCOTLAND
George Combe (1788-1858 ) was a highly successful advocate of phrenology (Britannica [1], British Library [1]),a pseudo-scientific precursor of eugenics that used features of the skull and the surface of the brain to predict criminality, mental defect, and a variety of other human attributes. Thriving during the height of Britain’s empire and slave-owning, phrenology was used in debates about racial supremacy. According to Sack (2017), Combe helped to found the Edinburgh Phrenological Society in 1820. He lived in Stockbridge in Edinburgh.
According to Becky Howell (2018), phrenology was never universally accepted, but it did have a profound impact on psychiatry. During the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, the care given to people with mental health issues and learning difficulties was under scrutiny. Many doctors campaigned for better moral care, as asylums were seen as prison-like, with treatment being akin to punishment. Patients were often shackled to restrain them and beaten as punishment instead of given care. ,
Sir James Crichton- Browne (1840-38) was a leading Scottish psychiatrist, neurologist, and eugenicist who was much influenced by phrenology. He spent much of his childhood in Dumfries, where his phrenologist father William was superintendent of the Crichton Royal Asylum. According to Neve and Turner (1995), Crichton-Browne was a Victorian, steeped in eugenics, degeneration and an awful fear of being "on the same level as a Hottentot". The "Half-Mads" were a particular problem, for which "eugenism (the acme of evolution) must do something" and he drew an interesting historical link with the phrenologists whom he termed "The First Eugenists". To him, eugenics was "ethical selection, which like natural selection aims at the elimination of the less unfit and the preservation of the fit". In his view, brains could be exercised, could be nurtured, could be damaged: above all, in the early career of James Crichton-Browne, brains could be opened up and looked at, their gyri delineated, their densities measured.

According to Information Services [1] at the University of Edinburgh, Francis Crew (1888-1973) was a pioneering geneticist who paved the way for Edinburgh to become a centre of genetics research. In 1920 he became the first director of the Institute of Animal Breeding and in 1928 he became the first Professor of Animal Genetics at the University of Edinburgh. From 1945 he was chair of public health and social medicine, and it has been said that during this tenure he laid the foundations of medical genetics.

According to the intersectional historian Henry Dee (2021), who graduated from the University of Edinburgh in 2020 with a Ph.D. in History and has communicated with Scott and I since, Francis Crew was Edinburgh University’s leading eugenicist in the 1920s. A member of the Eugenics Society and president of the British Population Survey, his 1927 book, Organic Inheritance of Man (Crew, 1927) is full of crude racist theories. A building is still named after him on campus. Crew recruited Frank Fraser Darling, another eugenicist, to work at Edinburgh's Imperial Bureau of Animal Genetics (IBAG). Both Crew and Darling wrote for Eugenics Review about the implications of animal genetics research for eugenics. Other Edinburgh eugenicists included Charles Galton Darwin, the Tate Professor of Natural Philosophy, who published The Next Million Years in 1952, which predicted the decline of populations through “dysgenic” degeneration, and contributed to Mankind Quarterly in the 1960s.