TOM LEONARD'S PUBLICATIONS (1971-2016)
Books and Histories
SCIENTIFIC INFERENCE, DATA ANALYSIS, AND ROBUSTNESS
(Academic Press, 1983. Co-edited with George Box and Chien-Fu Wu)
BAYESIAN METHODS (Cambridge University Press, 1999, with John Hsu)
A COURSE IN CATEGORICAL DATA ANALYSIS ( Chapman and Hall 1999,
with contributions by Orestis Papasouliotis)
THE LIFE OF A BAYESIAN BOY (2012, self-published)
A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS (2014, Wiley)
Wiley Hot Article of the Week 28th April 2014
Article Level Metrics
Score in context
Is one of the highest ever scores in this journal (ranked #7 of 136)
Puts article in the top 25% of all articles ranked by attention
Very good compared to articles of the same age (82nd percentile)
A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS (2014, StatsLife)
A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS (2014, Website)
THE LIFE OF A BAYESIAN BOY: AN INTERVIEW WITH THOMAS HOSKYNS
LEONARD (2014, Statistics Views)
REBORN ON SOUTRA (2017, Self-Published Novel)
INTERVIEW BY DIEGO ANDRES LUIS PEREZ (Bulletin of the International
Society for Bayesian Analysis, 2016)
WRITTEN AND VERBAL SUBMISSIONS TO THE COMMISSION OF INQUIRY
INTO THE HISTORY OF EUGENICS AT UCL (with Scott Forster 2019)
Dissertations
Bayesian Methods for Several Multinomial Distributions (1971)
M.Sc, Dissertation,University College London
Bayesian Methods for the Simultaneous Estimation of Several Parameters (1973)
Ph.D. Thesis, University of London Supervised by D.V. Lindley
OTHER ARTICLES
* My fourteen favourite articles are starred*
My research output has greatly benefited from joint publications with
Taskin Atilgan, John Hsu, Tom Chiu, Mohammed Madi, and Orestis
Papasouliotis, who I first met as students at the University of
Wisconsin-Madison, and who all completed their Ph.Ds with my co-author
Kam Wah Tsui and/or myself.
My co-authors also include Tony O'Hagan, P. Jeffrey Harrison,
J.Keith Ord, Jim Low, Louis Broekhoven, Melvyn Novick,
Christian Ritter, Irwin Guttman, Li Sun, S.H. Kim, Frank Baker,
Colin Aitken, Richard L. Brown, Laura Rounds, and Ian Main.
DURING 1970s
1. BAYESIAN METHODS FOR BINOMIAL DATA (1972) Biometrika
2*. A BAYESIAN METHOD FOR HISTOGRAMS (1973) Biometrika
3. A MODIFICATION TO THE BAYES ESTIMATE OF A NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION (1974) Biometrika
4, COMMENT ON THE ESTIMATION OF PROPORTIONS IN
M GROUPS (1974) Psychometrika
5. Letter on Parapsychology and Coincidences (1974) Sunday Times
Later reproduced in INCREDIBLE COINCIDENCE by Alan Vaughan
6*. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE LINEAR MODEL WITH
UNEQUAL VARIANCES (1975) Technometrics
7*. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION METHODS FOR TWO-WAY
CONTINGENCY TABLES (1975) JRSSB
8. SOME ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO MULTI-PARAMETER
ESTIMATION (1976) Biometrika
9. AN INVESTIGATION OF THE F-TEST PROCEDURE AS AN
ESTIMATION SHORTCUT (with J.K.Ord, 1976) JRSSB
10. BAYES ESTIMATION SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PARAMETER
CONSTRAINTS (with A O'Hagan, 1976) Biometrika
11. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO SOME MULTINOMIAL ESTIMATION
AND PRETESTING PROBLEMS (1977) JASA
12. AN ALTERNATIVE BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE BRADLEY-TERRY
MODEL FOR PAIRED COMPARISONS (1977) Biometrics
13. BAYESIAN SIMULTANEOUS ESTIMATION FOR SEVERAL
MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS (1977) Comm. Statist. A
14. AN APPLICATION OF MULTIVARIATE HIERARCHICAL
FORECASTING (with P.J. Harrison and T.Gazard, 1977)
RSS Annual Conference Proceedings
15*. DENSITY ESTIMATION, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES AND
PRIOR INFORMATION (with Discussion, 1978) JRSSB
DURING 1980s (% indicates co-authorship with John S.J.Hsu)
1*. THE ROLES OF COHERENCE AND INDUCTIVE MODELLING
IN BAYESIAN STATISTICS (with Discussion,1980) Valencia 1
2*.THE PROBABILITY OF FETAL METALOBIC ACIDOSIS DURING
LABOR IN A POPULATION AT RISK AS DETERMINED BY
CLINICAL FACTORS (with Discussion, 1981 with Jim Low et al)
American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology
3*. Comment on A SIMPLE PREDICTIVE DENSITY FUNCTION (1982)
JASA. Contains a seminal result introducing conditional Laplacian
Approximations into the Bayesian literature.
4* AN EMPIRICAL BAYES APPROACH TO THE SMOOTH
ESTIMATION OF UNKNOWN FUNCTIONS (1982) MRC Report
This technical report initiated a large literature on the effectively Bayesian
smoothing of logistic regression functions, It is cited by
O'Sullivan, Yandell, and Raynor (JASA 1986)
5. AN INFERENTIAL APPROACH TO THE BIOSSAY DESIGN
PROBLEM (1982) MRC Report
Turned out to be actually concerned with nuclear missiles hitting silos
6. APPLICATIONS OF THE EM ALGORITHM TO THE
ESTIMATION OF BAYESIAN HYPERPARAMETERS (1982)
MRC Report
7. STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR THE SKEWED NORMAL
AND RELATED DISTRIBUTIONS (1982, with Louis Broekhoven)
MRC Report
8. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO MARKOVIAN MODELS FOR
NORMAL AND POISSON DATA (1982) MRC Report
9. BAYES ESTIMATION OF A MULTIVARIATE DENSITY
(1982) MRC Report
10. SOME PHILOSOPHIES OF INFERENCE AND MODELING
(1983) In Scientific Inference, Robustness and Data Analysis
11 Comment on PARAMETRIC EMPIRICAL BAYES INFERENCE
(1983)JASA
12. SOME DATA-ANALYTIC MODIFICATIONS TO BAYES-STEIN
ESTIMATION (1984) Ann Inst Statist Math
13 ON BAYES THEOREM, PATERNITY TESTING AND WISCONSIN
LAW (1985) UW Report
14. BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND DIAGNOSTICS FOR THE
THREE PARAMETER LOGISTIC MODEL (1985, with M.R.Novick)
ONR Report
15 Comment on TESTING FOR INDEPENDENCE IN A TWO-WAY
TABLE (1985) Annals of Statistics
16. BAYESIAN FULL-RANK MARGINALIZATION FOR TWO-WAY
CONTINGENCY TABLES (1986, with M.R. Novick) JES
17 ON THE APPLICATION OF AIC TO BIVARIATE DENSITY
ESTIMATION, NON-PARAMETRIC REGRESSION, AND
DISCRIMINATION (1985, with T. Atilgan)
Symposium Proceedings
18*. % BAYESIAN MARGINAL INFERENCE (1989, with John Hsu
ands Kam-Wah Tsui) JASA
DURING 1990s ($ indicates co-authorship with Orestis Papasouliotis)
1. % Comment on PREDICTIVE LIKELIHOOD-A REVIEW
(1990, with John Hsu and Kam-Wah Tsui) Statistical Science
2. Commentary on PARENTING PROBABILITY, AN
UNNECESSARY ARTIFACT (1991, by John Wood)
(Reference obscure)
3. % STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR MULTIPLE CHOICE TESTS
(1991, with John Hsu and Kam-Wah Tsui) Psychometrika
4*. %BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR A COVARIANCE MATRIX
(1992, with John Hsu) Annals of Statistics
5. BAYESIAN ANALYSIS, AN OVERVIEW FULL TEXT
(1992, first ISBA newsletter)
6. % THE BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF CATEGORICAL DATA,
A SELECTIVE REVIEW (1994, with John Hsu) In Aspects of Uncertainty:
A Tribute to D.V. Lindley
7. % THE LAPLACIAN T-APPROXIMATION IN BAYESIAN INFERENCE
(1994, with John Hsu and Christian Ritter) Statistica Sinica
8. % BAYESIAN AND LIKELIHOOD METHODS FROM
EQUALLY WEIGHTED MIXTURES
(1994, with John Hsu et al) Ann Inst Statist Math
9.% ON SMALL SAMPLE BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND DESIGN FOR
QUANTAL RESPONSE CURVES (1994,with John Hsu)
In Modeling and Prediction honouring Seymour Geisser
10. AN INVESTIGATION OF HIERARCHICAL BAYES PROCEDURES
IN ITEM RESPONSE THEORY (1994, with S.H. Kim et al)
Psychometrika
UNCONTROLLED DATA (1996) Stat and Prob Letters
12*. THE MATRIX-LOGARITHMIC COVARIANCE MODEL
(1996, with Tom Chiu and Kam-Wah Tsui) JASA
13.% BAYESIAN METHODS FOR VARIANCE COMPONENTS MODELS
(1996, with Li Sun, John Hsu and Irwin Guttman) JASA
14. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION FOR SHIFTED EXPONENTIAL
DISTRIBUTIONS (1996, with M.T, Madi) J Stat Plan Inf.
15 $. ESTIMATION OF QUANTITIES HANDLED AND BURDEN
OF PROOF ( 1996, with Colin Aitken et al) JRSSA
16 $. PRONOUNCED CYTOPLASMIC PH GRADIENTS ARE NOT
REQUIRED FOR TIP GROWTH IN PLANT AND FUNGAL CELLS
(1997 with R.M.Parton et al) Journal of Cell Science
18 $. A TWO-ITEM SCREENING QUESTIONNAIRE FOR ALCOHOL
AND OTHER DRUG PROBLEMS (1997, with R.L. Brown et al)
Journal of Family Practice
19*.% HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN SEMI-PARAMETRIC PROCEDURES
FOR LOGISTIC REGRESSION. (1997, with John Hsu) Biometrika
20 $. THE PREVALENCE AND DETECTION OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE
DISORDERS IN PATIENTS OF AGES 18 TO 49
(1998, with R.L. Brown et al) Preventive Medicine
21 $. ONE SLOPE OR TWO? DETECTING STATISTICALLY
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OF SLOPE IN GEOPHYSICAL DATA
(1999, with Ian Main et al) Geophysical Research Letters
AD 2000 and beyond
Three joint papers, concerning a statistical approach to radial basis
networks, with International Chess Master Mark Orr and his colleagues in
A.I. are omitted as I did not substantively contribute. They appeared in
the International Journal for Neural Systems (1999, 2000). As far as I can
remember, I contributed to the original grant proposal and talked with Mark
several times about Bayesian approaches to the problem, over a drink.
One of my junior colleagues, who was also a boy scout leader,
was supposed to be working on this joint research, but he got diverted
by more pressing issues.
The Geophysics patent and two related papers evolved from Chapter 5 of
Orestis' Ph.D. thesis
1. BAYES ESTIMATION WITH UNCERTAIN ORDER CONSTRAINTS
(2000, with M.T.Madi and Kam-Wah Tsui) J Stat Plan Inf
2 $. A TWO-ITEM CONJOINT SCREEN FOR ALCOHOL AND OTHER
DRUG RELATED PROBLEMS (2001, with R.L.Brown et al)
Journal of the Board of Family Practice
3*. A BAYESIAN FIXED EFFECTS ANALYSIS OF THE
MANTEL-HAENSZEL MODEL APPLIED TO META ANALYSIS
(2002, with John Duffy) Statistics in Medicine
4. $ COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION (2003, with O. Papasouliotis)
Encyclopedia of Environmetrics
5. $ A POISSON MODEL FOR IDENTIFYING CHARACTERISTIC SIZE
EFFECTS IN FREQUENCY DATA (2001, with O. Papasouliotis and
Ian Main) Journal of Geophysical Research
6.% THE SAFARI CAT DATA, PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND
POSSIBLY MONOTONIC POPULATION PROPORTIONS
(2005, with John Hsu) UCSB, Unpublished Manuscript
7.% BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR MODEL CHOICE
(2006, with John Hsu) UCSB, Unpublished Manuscript, a bit flawed
8*.$ LONG RANGE CRITICAL POINT DYNAMICS IN OILFIELD
FLOW RATE DATA (2006, with Ian Main et al)
Geophysical Research Letters
9.$ HYDROCARBON RECOVERY FROM A HYDROCARBON RESERVOIR
(2006, with Ian Main et al) International Patent
10.$ THE STATISTICAL RESERVOIR MODEL: CALIBRATING FAULTS
AND FRACTURES AND PREDICTING RESERVOIR RESPONSE TO
WATER FLOOD (2007, with Ian Main et al) Geological Society London
11. MY FAMILY ANCESTRY (2012) Self-published
12. HEALTH WARNING (2012) Self-published
13. ON GAY SOCIETY AND TRADITIONAL FAMILIES
(2012, with Alan Turkington and Gay Euclid Edinburgh) Self-published
15: PE 1494/A and PE 1494/S (2013) Scottish Parliament
16: MHB 108 (2014) Scottish Government
See also DOWNLOADABLE DOCUMENTS
17. ON ANALYSING THE SCOTTISH CRIME DATA, AND MENTAL
HEALTH (2015)
Thomas Hoskyns Leonard Blog
18. MY ONGOING MENTAL HEALTH CAMPAIGN (2015)
Thomas Hoskyns Leonard Blog
17. TO JOHN AND ORESTIS, CO-AUTHORS EXTRAORDINAIRE
(Poem, 2015) Thomas Hoskyns Leonard Blog
A MESSAGE FROM PROFESSOR MANABU ASAI
Tom, aged 67, reading a poem to the 'Blind Poetics'
performance group, in the Blind Poet Bar, Edinburgh
Please click here for 46 SELECTED POEMS (2012-2015)
A number of further poems are published on my blog,
SHORT STORIES
1. JOE'S MOLE (2012)
2. SENSUOUS JACUZZI (2012)
3. A ROMANCE IN THE AFTON RED RIFT (2012)
4. THE TRAGEDY OF PETER TAVERTON (2012)
5. A DOUBLE SEDUCTION IN PLYMPTON SAINT MARY (2012)
6. A MICRO-TOUR OF A TINY CORNER OF YORKSHIRE (2012)
7. CAPTAIN CHARLIE AND THE GREEN HOODS (2012)
8. MOTHER TERESA APPEARS IN HOPETOUN
CRESCENT GARDENS (2012)
9. AUNTIE MAGNOLIA'S MOST WONDERFUL EXPERIENCE
(2012)
INCOMPLETE NOVELS
1. PRINCE HAMLET VISITS QINSATORIX (2012)
2. A DEVONIAN SAGA (2014)
ETERNAL FATHER STRONG TO SAVE
Dedicated to my grandfather CERA First Class Emmanuel Leonard
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