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Wednesday 15 July 2015

BAYESIAN NEWS: ISBA BULLETIN June 2015




                            INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR BAYESIAN ANALYSIS


                                                       ISBA BULLETIN JUNE 2015


           Includes biography of Bruno de Finetti who attempted, without rigorous

           success, to axiomatise subjective probability, and is most

           celebrated for his exchangeability theorems.


     
                                             



Also includes an interview of the Braziliab Bayesian forecaster Helio Mignon, who 

obtained his Ph.D. at the University of Warwick




              According to Helio's Ph.D. supervisor, the late lamented P.Jeffrey Harrison,

                      'The best forecasts are those which are made after the event'.

              Harrison also once said

             'I love exchangeability. You exchange you prior when you've seen your posterior.'

              Helio's pretty good though.

           
              See also A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS


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