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Wednesday 19 January 2022

Thomas H. Leonard's Publications in Statistics, History, Geophysics and Medicine (1972-2022) with Annotations

 

Thomas H. Leonard's Publications in Statistics, History, Geophysics and Medicine (1972-2022) with ANNOTATIONS


                                             AMENDED AND ANNOTATED,  January 2022

                                                                

                                                            Thomas H. Leonard Wiki

                   Numerous technical reports e.g. published by the American College Testing Program (1971-2) and by the Department of of the Universities of Warwick ( 1972-1980) have been omitted as have my published  comments on papers which have been read to the Royal Statistical Society, I however include some of my  self-published work. I am still trying to update the links.

                                                                                

 

                        Books,Self-Published Novels and Histories 

                        1.SCIENTIFIC INFERENCE, DATA ANALYSIS, AND ROBUSTNESS
                       (Academic Press, 1983. Co-edited with George Box and Chien-Fu Wu)

                        2.BAYESIAN METHODS (Cambridge University Press, 1999, with John Hsu)
                             Well reviewed e.g. Chapter 4 takes apart the Bernoulli- Savage Expected
                         Utility Hypothesis

                        3. A COURSE IN CATEGORICAL DATA ANALYSIS ( Chapman and Hall 2000,
                        with contributions by Orestis Papasouliotis. Taylor and Francis e-book, 2020) 

                                  I retired from University of Edinburgh in 2001.

                        

                        4 GRAND SCHEMES ON QINSATORIX (2012) self-published novel studylib.net 
                        

                        5.THE LIFE OF A BAYESIAN BOY (2012, self-published)

                        6.**.A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS up to
                                 1971 (2014, Wiley)

                        Wiley Hot Article of the Week 28th April 2014


                   Article Level Metrics


                          Score in context
Is one of the highest ever scores in this journal (ranked #7 of 136)
Puts article in the top 25% of all articles ranked by attention
Very good compared to articles of the same age (82nd percentile)




      
                        7. A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS  (2014, StatsLife)

                        8. A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS from 1972  (2014,                                    revised  2021)
                              Self published

                        9.  THE EARLY HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS (2014)    Slidetodoc.com
                             As presented to a meeting of the Edinburgh Section of the Royal Statisticsl                                     Society


I believe that most statistical investigations are inherently subjective in nature, and that statisticians should no longer attempt to achieve ‘false objectivity’. Rather than attempting to educate the public in a possibly misleading manner, I think that our leading statistical societies should focus on encouraging their members to invariably insist on fairness, professionalism, and impartial honesty, while acknowledging the subjective nature of their conclusions. It is only then that we can hope to properly educate the public regarding the real benefits that can be gained from statistical investigations.



                  
                        11..REBORN ON SOUTRA (2017, Self-Published Novel)

                        12. INTERVIEW BY DIEGO ANDRES LUIS PEREZ (Bulletin of the International
                        Society for Bayesian Analysis, 2016)


                        13.WRITTEN AND VERBAL SUBMISSIONS TO THE  COMMISSION

                      OF INQUIRY   INTO THE HISTORY OF EUGENICS AT UCL 

                      (with Scott Forster 2019)

                         Our quote






                      has been cited by Professor Ann Alison Phoenix of UCL




             Eugenics was not universally popular in its heydays. Early critics of Eugenics included Lester Frank Ward, GK Chesterton(see his 1917 book Eugenics and Other Evils), Franz Boas, Halliday Sutherland, and Aldous Huxley, Liberal MP Josiah Wedgwood would speak against the 1913 Mental Deficiency Act. This Actthough containing elements of welfare state provision, also made judgements on mental abilities as if they were fixed and biological rather than the result of material social conditions.

       The early eugenicists cannot therefore be exonerated on the grounds that their preachings were unquestioned at that time.









    
                    15. PROFESSOR DAVID FINNEY, SIR GODFREY THOMPSON AND 
                                  EUGENICS IEDINBURGH 
           

                        16. LOOKING BACK THROUGH THE FIREBALL  (2022) COMPLETED                                        NOVEL


                                         

                                                  

             

                                                  
                                                                             Dissertations

                       Bayesian Methods for Several Multinomial Distributions (1971)
                      M.Sc, Dissertation,University College London. Supervised by D.V. Lindley.
                       Mark of Distinction on advanced, research level Masters,

                       Bayesian Methods for the Simultaneous Estimation of Several Parameters (1973)
                       Ph.D. Thesis, University of London    Supervised by D.V. Lindley 
                          External Examiner: Patricia Altham, University of Cambridge,



                                                             Patricia Altham, pioneer of
                                                        Bayesian Categorical Data Analysis




Chapter 1                 Introduction

Chapter 2                 The Estimation of Several Parameters

Chapter 3                 The Simultaneous Estimation of Multinomial Cell Probabilities

Chapter 4                 A Bayesian Method for Histograms

Chapter 5                 A Bayesian Analysis for Several Multinomial Distributions

Chapter 6                 Two-Way Contingency Tables and Related Topics

Chapter 7                 The Linear Model with Unequal Variances

Chapter 8                 Regression Models






                                                          ARTICLES     ** 22 best papers (in my opinion!)
                                     

                       DURING 1970s    Papers 1,2,7, and 12 were inspired by D.V. Lindley,
                       and have since been regarded  by Hitchcock and Agresti  (2005)  as initiating 
                       a key 'logistic' approach in the history  of Bayesian Categorical Data                                      Analysis, that followed the methodologies of Jack Good and Patricia Altham.
                                Nan Laird, Matthew Knuiman and Terry Speed have also contributed to                          this logistic approach, and it  was pursued exhaustively by Jon Forster, and                           by John Geweke and other econometricians.
                                     

                       1. BAYESIAN METHODS FOR BINOMIAL DATA (1972) Biometrika
                                         (I published a related paper with John Hsu in 2017 i.e. 45 years later!)
                             


                       2**. A BAYESIAN METHOD FOR HISTOGRAMS (1973) Biometrika


                      3. A MODIFICATION TO THE BAYES ESTIMATE OF THE MEAN OF  A NORMAL
                            DISTRIBUTION (1974) Biometrika

                       4, COMMENT ON THE ESTIMATION OF PROPORTIONS IN
                           M GROUPS (1974) Psychometrika

                      5Letter on Parapsychology and Coincidences (1974) Sunday Times
                          Later reproduced in INCREDIBLE COINCIDENCE by Alan Vaughan

                      6.**. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE LINEAR MODEL WITH
                          UNEQUAL VARIANCES (1975) Technometrics

                     Later extensively applied by Jean Foulley, Daniel Gianola, and Rob Tempelman
                     to Animal Breeding, and by John Geweke to Econometrics. 

                      7 **BAYESIAN ESTIMATION METHODS FOR TWO-WAY
                          CONTINGENCY TABLES (1975) JRSSB

                      8. SOME ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO MULTI-PARAMETER
                           ESTIMATION (1976) Biometrika

                      9. AN INVESTIGATION OF THE F-TEST PROCEDURE AS AN
                           ESTIMATION SHORTCUT (with J.K.Ord, 1976) JRSSB.
                                 Provides an early Bayesian justification of Akaike's criterion AIC,

                     10. BAYES ESTIMATION SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PARAMETER
                           CONSTRAINTS (with A O'Hagan, 1976) Biometrika

                     11. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO SOME MULTINOMIAL ESTIMATION
                           AND PRETESTING PROBLEMS (1977) JASA. Another Bayesian justification
                         of AIC.

                     12.** AN ALTERNATIVE BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE BRADLEY-TERRY
                           MODEL FOR PAIRED COMPARISONS (1977) Biometrics
                             USCF later considered my methodology for ranking chess players.
                             

                     13. BAYESIAN SIMULTANEOUS ESTIMATION FOR SEVERAL
                           MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS (1977) Comm. Statist. A

                   14. AN APPLICATION OF MULTIVARIATE HIERARCHICAL
                            FORECASTING (with P.J. Harrison and T.Gazard, 1977)
                            RSS Annual Conference Proceedings

                     15**.  DENSITY ESTIMATION, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES AND
                            PRIOR  INFORMATION (with Discussion, 1978) JRSSB

               (This paper initiated a very extensive high quality literature, by Peter Lenk, Daniel                 Thorburn, Chong Gu, Finbarr O'Sullivan,  Dennis Cox, Jaako Riihimaki, and Aki                      Vehtari. Approximate solutions can be computed using Havard Rue's computer
                package INLA)

                                                     289 citations including

                                         CITATIONS (semantic scholar)

                        Peter Lenk (2019) has fully implemented his methodology on his BSAM package                            on   R
                               
                          
                          
                     DURING 1980s (Includes long fallow period during time I worked half-time for
                    U.S. Army with MRC, and until I began by my  research with John Hsu)
                                     

                       1**. THE ROLES OF COHERENCE AND INDUCTIVE MODELLING
                           IN BAYESIAN STATISTICS (with Discussion,1980) Valencia 1

                       2.**THE PROBABILITY OF FETAL METALOBIC ACIDOSIS DURING
                           LABOR IN A POPULATION AT RISK AS DETERMINED BY
                           CLINICAL FACTORS (with Discussion, 1981 with Jim Low et al)
                           American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology 

                       3 ** Comment on A SIMPLE PREDICTIVE DENSITY FUNCTION (1982)
                            JASA. Contains a seminal result introducing conditional Laplacian
                            Approximations into the Bayesian literature. Amazing accuracy was                                               demonstrated by John Hsu
                           during his subsequent Ph.D. research. Cited by Tierney and Kadane as source                               reference,

                       4  AN EMPIRICAL BAYES APPROACH TO THE SMOOTH
                           ESTIMATION OF UNKNOWN FUNCTIONS (1982) MRC Report

                          This technical report and my research with Finbarr O'Sullivan initiated a large                                literature on the
                         effectively Bayesian smoothing of logistic regression functions, It was adapted by

                                          O'Sullivan, Yandell, and Raynor (JASA 1986)

                        John Hsu and I were not to publish a fully Bayesian approach to semi-parametric
                     logistic regression until our paper in Biometrika (1997). 
                  
                                  

                       5. AN INFERENTIAL APPROACH TO THE BIOSSAY DESIGN
                           PROBLEM (1982) MRC Report     
                           
                       6. APPLICATIONS OF THE EM ALGORITHM TO THE
                           ESTIMATION OF BAYESIAN HYPERPARAMETERS (1982)
                           MRC Report

                       7.  STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR THE SKEWED NORMAL
                            AND RELATED DISTRIBUTIONS (1982, with Louis Broekhoven)
                            MRC Report
  
                       8.  A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO MARKOVIAN  MODELS FOR
                            NORMAL AND POISSON DATA (1982) MRC Report

                       9. BAYES ESTIMATION OF A MULTIVARIATE DENSITY
                           (1982) MRC Report

                     10SOME PHILOSOPHIES OF INFERENCE AND MODELING
                          (1983) In Scientific Inference, Robustness and Data Analysis

                     11 Comment on PARAMETRIC EMPIRICAL BAYES INFERENCE by Carl Morris
                           (1983)JASA    

                     12. SOME DATA-ANALYTIC MODIFICATIONS TO BAYES-STEIN
                            ESTIMATION (1984) Ann Inst Statist Math

                     13 ON BAYES THEOREM, PATERNITY TESTING AND WISCONSIN
                           LAW (1985) UW Report 

                     14  COMMENT ON THE PAPER BY DIACONIS AND EFRON (1985) Annals of                                Statistics                     

                     15. BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND DIAGNOSTICS FOR THE
                           THREE PARAMETER LOGISTIC MODEL (1985, with M.R.Novick)
                           ONR Report, cited in psychometrics literature.           

                     16**. BAYESIAN FULL-RANK MARGINALIZATION FOR TWO-WAY
                           CONTINGENCY TABLES (1986, with M.R. Novick) JES
                            Includes analysis of the Marine Corps Data, and Laplacian Approximations,

                     17 ON THE APPLICATION OF AIC TO BIVARIATE DENSITY
                           ESTIMATION, NON-PARAMETRIC REGRESSION, AND
                           DISCRIMINATION (1985, with T. Atilgan) in Multivariate Statistical Modeling 
                           and Data Analysis (ed by Bozdogan and Gupta)
                       

                     18.** BAYESIAN MARGINAL INFERENCE (1989, with John Hsu
                           ands Kam-Wah Tsui) JASA

                    This paper got conditional Laplacian approximations right



                                                              John and Serene Hsu
            
                

                    DURING 1990s  


                      1. Comment on PREDICTIVE LIKELIHOOD-A REVIEW
                          (1990, with John Hsu and Kam-Wah Tsui) Statistical Science

                      2. Commentary on PARENTING PROBABILITY, AN
                          UNNECESSARY ARTIFACT (1991, by John Wood) 
                          (Reference obscure)

                      3. **STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR MULTIPLE CHOICE TESTS
                          (1991, with John Hsu and Kam-Wah Tsui) Psychometrika

                      4.** BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR A COVARIANCE MATRIX
                          (1992, with John Hsu) Annals of Statistics

                        Motivated a large literature  e.g. by John Hsu, Marick Sinay, Chih-Wen Hsu,                                  Xinwei Deng, Kam Wah Tsui, Jim Berger and Ruoyong Yang, Manabu Asai and                                    MIcheal McAleer (stochastic volatility models), and Peter Williams (neural                                        networks)              

                      5. BAYESIAN ANALYSIS, AN OVERVIEW      
                          (1992, first ISBA newsletter)

                      6. THE BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF CATEGORICAL DATA,
                          A SELECTIVE REVIEW (1994, with John Hsu) In Aspects of Uncertainty: 
                         A Tribute to D.V. Lindley     
                         

                      7. THE LAPLACIAN T-APPROXIMATION IN BAYESIAN INFERENCE
                         (1994, with John Hsu and Christian Ritter) Statistica Sinica

                      8. BAYESIAN AND LIKELIHOOD METHODS FROM
                          EQUALLY WEIGHTED MIXTURES
                          (1994, with John Hsu et al) Ann Inst Statist Math

                      9.ON SMALL SAMPLE BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND DESIGN FOR
                          QUANTAL RESPONSE CURVES (1994,with John Hsu)
                           In Modeling and Prediction honouring Seymour Geisser
                                                                 

                     10. AN INVESTIGATION OF HIERARCHICAL BAYES PROCEDURES
                          IN ITEM RESPONSE THEORY (1994, with S.H. Kim et al)
                           Psychometrika
  
                     11.** ON EXCHANGEABLE SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS FOR
                          UNCONTROLLED DATA (1996) Stat and Prob Letters

                     12**. THE MATRIX-LOGARITHMIC COVARIANCE MODEL
                           (1996, with Tom Chiu and Kam-Wah Tsui) JASA
                               Described as seminal in the Econometrics literature by Asai and McAleer
                                Applied to spatial processes by Le Sage and Pace (2012) , Le Sage and                                        Pace implemented their extensions on their computer package MESS,

                             


                     13.**BAYESIAN METHODS FOR VARIANCE COMPONENTS MODELS
                          (1996, with Li Sun, John Hsu and Irwin Guttman) JASA
                                       

                     14. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION FOR SHIFTED EXPONENTIAL
                          DISTRIBUTIONS (1996, with M.T, Madi) J Stat Plan Inf.

                     15 ESTIMATION OF QUANTITIES HANDLED AND BURDEN
                          OF PROOF ( 1996, with Colin Aitken et al) JRSSA

                     16  PRONOUNCED CYTOPLASMIC PH GRADIENTS ARE NOT
                           REQUIRED FOR TIP GROWTH IN PLANT AND FUNGAL CELLS
                          (1997 with R.M.Parton et al) Journal of Cell Science

                     18 ** A TWO-ITEM SCREENING QUESTIONNAIRE FOR ALCOHOL
                            AND OTHER DRUG PROBLEMS (1997, with R.L. Brown et al)
                          Journal of Family Practice  

                     19**.HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN SEMI-PARAMETRIC PROCEDURES
                           FOR LOGISTIC REGRESSION. (1997, with John Hsu) Biometrika
                                     Cited in history of Bayesian Categorical Data Analysis
                                                 by Hitchcock and Agresti (2005)

                     20 THE PREVALENCE AND DETECTION OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE
                           DISORDERS IN PATIENTS  OF AGES 18 TO 49
                          (1998, with R.L. Brown et al) Preventive Medicine  

                  21, Izenman A. J., Papasouliotis, 0., Leonard, T., and Aitken, C. G. G. (1998). 
                  Bayesian predictive evaluation of measurement error with application to 
                  the assessment of illicit drug quantity. 
                 Technical Report 3, Statistical Laboratory, University of Edinburgh


                     22.**  ONE SLOPE OR TWO? DETECTING STATISTICALLY
                            SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OF SLOPE IN GEOPHYSICAL DATA

                           (1999, with Ian Main et al) Geophysical Research Letters


                       AD 2000 and beyond ( I took time off and then retired early in 2001)

                      Three joint papers, concerning a statistical approach to radial basis
                      networks, with International Chess Master Mark Orr and his colleagues in 
                      A.I. are omitted as I did not substantively contribute. They appeared in
                      the International Journal for Neural Systems (1999, 2000). 

                       The Geophysics patent and two related papers evolved from Chapter 5 of 
                      Orestis Papasouliotis ' Ph.D. thesis The first four chapters of Orestis' thesis
                       describe his as yet unpublished research, supervised by myself ,on the Bayesian 
                       Analysis of Covariance, with an application in Forensic Psychology.

                               









                      1. BAYES ESTIMATION WITH UNCERTAIN ORDER CONSTRAINTS
                          (2000, with M.T.Madi and Kam-Wah Tsui) J Stat Plan Inf

                      2 A TWO-ITEM CONJOINT SCREEN FOR ALCOHOL AND OTHER 
                          DRUG RELATED PROBLEMS (2001, with R.L.Brown et al)
                          Journal of the Board of Family Practice  

                      3 ** A BAYESIAN FIXED EFFECTS ANALYSIS OF THE 
                          MANTEL-HAENSZEL MODEL APPLIED TO META ANALYSIS
                          (2002, with John Duffy) Statistics in Medicine   

                      4. COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION  (2003, with O. Papasouliotis)
                             Encyclopedia of Environmetrics

                      5.** A POISSON MODEL FOR IDENTIFYING CHARACTERISTIC SIZE
                          EFFECTS IN FREQUENCY DATA
 (2001, with O. Papasouliotis and
                           Ian Main) Journal of Geophysical Research

                      6 THE SAFARI CAT DATA, PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND 
                          POSSIBLY MONOTONIC POPULATION PROPORTIONS
                          (2005, with John Hsu) UCSB, Unpublished Manuscript

                      7 BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR MODEL CHOICE
                          (2006, with John Hsu) UCSB, Unpublished Manuscript, a bit flawed             

                      8** .LONG RANGE CRITICAL POINT DYNAMICS IN OILFIELD
                          FLOW RATE DATA (2006, with Ian Main et al)
                          Geophysical Research Letters

                      9. HYDROCARBON RECOVERY FROM A HYDROCARBON RESERVOIR
                           (2006, with Ian Main et al) International Patent

                     10.** THE STATISTICAL RESERVOIR MODEL: CALIBRATING FAULTS
                           AND FRACTURES AND PREDICTING RESERVOIR RESPONSE TO
                           WATER FLOOD (2007, with Ian Main et al) Geological Society London

                                This and Low et al (1981) are my two best joint applied papers. 
                 They seem to have been seminal in Medicine and in Geophysics. Orestis and I 
                  contributed the key statistical ideas to the Geophysics paper,

                11 Numerous international posts as moderator Mental Health Discussions                                        Edinburgh (2015-date)

                     12. ON ANALYSING THE SCOTTISH CRIME DATA, AND MENTAL 
                           HEALTH (2015)
                           Thomas Hoskyns Leonard Blog
                                
                         (with John Hsu) International Journal of Statistics and Probability 2017
                

                     14ALL ABOUT ATTENTION DEFICIT DISORDER (2019)  Self-published, in                                   preparation.


                      WOW! I HAVE NOW PUBLISHED IN THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNALS FOR 50                        YEARS

                          


                      I have also self-published over 100 poems and published about 10 poems in church publications, the Broughton Spurtle and elsewhere. My short story Joe's Mole (2012) is published in an obscure book. 
                           


                                  

                              
                               Tom, aged 67, reading a poem to the 'Blind Poetics'
                                performance group, in the Blind Poet Bar, Edinburgh
        

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