Thomas H. Leonard's Publications in Statistics, History, Geophysics and Medicine (1972-2022) with ANNOTATIONS
AMENDED AND ANNOTATED, January 2022
Thomas H. Leonard Wiki
Numerous technical reports e.g. published by the American College Testing Program (1971-2) and by the Department of of the Universities of Warwick ( 1972-1980) have been omitted as have my published comments on papers which have been read to the Royal Statistical Society, I however include some of my self-published work. I am still trying to update the links.
Books,Self-Published Novels and Histories
1.SCIENTIFIC INFERENCE, DATA ANALYSIS, AND ROBUSTNESS
(Academic Press, 1983. Co-edited with George Box and Chien-Fu Wu)
2.BAYESIAN METHODS (Cambridge University Press, 1999, with John Hsu)
Well reviewed e.g. Chapter 4 takes apart the Bernoulli- Savage Expected
Utility Hypothesis
3. A COURSE IN CATEGORICAL DATA ANALYSIS ( Chapman and Hall 2000,
with contributions by Orestis Papasouliotis. Taylor and Francis e-book, 2020)
3. A COURSE IN CATEGORICAL DATA ANALYSIS ( Chapman and Hall 2000,
with contributions by Orestis Papasouliotis. Taylor and Francis e-book, 2020)
I retired from University of Edinburgh in 2001.
4 GRAND SCHEMES ON QINSATORIX (2012) self-published novel studylib.net
5.THE LIFE OF A BAYESIAN BOY (2012, self-published)
6.**.A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS up to
Article Level Metrics
Score in context
Score in context
Is one of the highest ever scores in this journal (ranked #7 of 136)
Puts article in the top 25% of all articles ranked by attention
Very good compared to articles of the same age (82nd percentile)
8. A PERSONAL HISTORY OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS from 1972 (2014, revised 2021)
As presented to a meeting of the Edinburgh Section of the Royal Statisticsl Society
I believe that most statistical investigations are inherently subjective in nature, and that statisticians should no longer attempt to achieve ‘false objectivity’. Rather than attempting to educate the public in a possibly misleading manner, I think that our leading statistical societies should focus on encouraging their members to invariably insist on fairness, professionalism, and impartial honesty, while acknowledging the subjective nature of their conclusions. It is only then that we can hope to properly educate the public regarding the real benefits that can be gained from statistical investigations.
11..REBORN ON SOUTRA (2017, Self-Published Novel)
12. INTERVIEW BY DIEGO ANDRES LUIS PEREZ (Bulletin of the International
Society for Bayesian Analysis, 2016)
13.WRITTEN AND VERBAL SUBMISSIONS TO THE COMMISSION
OF INQUIRY INTO THE HISTORY OF EUGENICS AT UCL
(with Scott Forster 2019)
Our quote
has been cited by Professor Ann Alison Phoenix of UCL
Eugenics was not universally popular in its heydays. Early critics of Eugenics included Lester Frank Ward, GK Chesterton(see his 1917 book Eugenics and Other Evils), Franz Boas, Halliday Sutherland, and Aldous Huxley, Liberal MP Josiah Wedgwood would speak against the 1913 Mental Deficiency Act. This Act, though containing elements of welfare state provision, also made judgements on mental abilities as if they were fixed and biological rather than the result of material social conditions.
The early eugenicists cannot therefore be exonerated on the grounds that their preachings were unquestioned at that time.
16. LOOKING BACK THROUGH THE FIREBALL (2022) COMPLETED NOVEL
Dissertations
Bayesian Methods for Several Multinomial Distributions (1971)
M.Sc, Dissertation,University College London. Supervised by D.V. Lindley.
Mark of Distinction on advanced, research level Masters,
Bayesian Methods for the Simultaneous Estimation of Several Parameters (1973)
Ph.D. Thesis, University of London Supervised by D.V. Lindley
Bayesian Methods for the Simultaneous Estimation of Several Parameters (1973)
Ph.D. Thesis, University of London Supervised by D.V. Lindley
External Examiner: Patricia Altham, University of Cambridge,
Patricia Altham, pioneer of
Bayesian Categorical Data Analysis
Chapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 2 The Estimation of Several Parameters
Chapter 3 The Simultaneous Estimation of Multinomial Cell Probabilities
Chapter 4 A Bayesian Method for Histograms
Chapter 5 A Bayesian Analysis for Several Multinomial Distributions
Chapter 6 Two-Way Contingency Tables and Related Topics
Chapter 7 The Linear Model with Unequal Variances
Chapter 8 Regression Models
ARTICLES ** 22 best papers (in my opinion!)
DURING 1970s Papers 1,2,7, and 12 were inspired by D.V. Lindley,
and have since been regarded by Hitchcock and Agresti (2005) as initiating
a key 'logistic' approach in the history of Bayesian Categorical Data Analysis, that followed the methodologies of Jack Good and Patricia Altham.
Nan Laird, Matthew Knuiman and Terry Speed have also contributed to this logistic approach, and it was pursued exhaustively by Jon Forster, and by John Geweke and other econometricians.
(I published a related paper with John Hsu in 2017 i.e. 45 years later!)
2**. A BAYESIAN METHOD FOR HISTOGRAMS (1973) Biometrika
3. A MODIFICATION TO THE BAYES ESTIMATE OF THE MEAN OF A NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION (1974) Biometrika
4, COMMENT ON THE ESTIMATION OF PROPORTIONS IN
M GROUPS (1974) Psychometrika
5. Letter on Parapsychology and Coincidences (1974) Sunday Times
Later reproduced in INCREDIBLE COINCIDENCE by Alan Vaughan
6.**. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE LINEAR MODEL WITH
UNEQUAL VARIANCES (1975) Technometrics
Later extensively applied by Jean Foulley, Daniel Gianola, and Rob Tempelman
to Animal Breeding, and by John Geweke to Econometrics.
7 **BAYESIAN ESTIMATION METHODS FOR TWO-WAY
CONTINGENCY TABLES (1975) JRSSB
8. SOME ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO MULTI-PARAMETER
ESTIMATION (1976) Biometrika
9. AN INVESTIGATION OF THE F-TEST PROCEDURE AS AN
ESTIMATION SHORTCUT (with J.K.Ord, 1976) JRSSB.
Provides an early Bayesian justification of Akaike's criterion AIC,
10. BAYES ESTIMATION SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PARAMETER
CONSTRAINTS (with A O'Hagan, 1976) Biometrika
11. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO SOME MULTINOMIAL ESTIMATION
AND PRETESTING PROBLEMS (1977) JASA. Another Bayesian justification
10. BAYES ESTIMATION SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PARAMETER
CONSTRAINTS (with A O'Hagan, 1976) Biometrika
11. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO SOME MULTINOMIAL ESTIMATION
AND PRETESTING PROBLEMS (1977) JASA. Another Bayesian justification
of AIC.
12.** AN ALTERNATIVE BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE BRADLEY-TERRY
MODEL FOR PAIRED COMPARISONS (1977) Biometrics
12.** AN ALTERNATIVE BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE BRADLEY-TERRY
MODEL FOR PAIRED COMPARISONS (1977) Biometrics
USCF later considered my methodology for ranking chess players.
13. BAYESIAN SIMULTANEOUS ESTIMATION FOR SEVERAL
MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS (1977) Comm. Statist. A
14. AN APPLICATION OF MULTIVARIATE HIERARCHICAL
FORECASTING (with P.J. Harrison and T.Gazard, 1977)
RSS Annual Conference Proceedings
15**. DENSITY ESTIMATION, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES AND
PRIOR INFORMATION (with Discussion, 1978) JRSSB
(This paper initiated a very extensive high quality literature, by Peter Lenk, Daniel Thorburn, Chong Gu, Finbarr O'Sullivan, Dennis Cox, Jaako Riihimaki, and Aki Vehtari. Approximate solutions can be computed using Havard Rue's computer
package INLA)
289 citations including
Peter Lenk (2019) has fully implemented his methodology on his BSAM package on R
DURING 1980s (Includes long fallow period during time I worked half-time for
U.S. Army with MRC, and until I began by my research with John Hsu)
1**. THE ROLES OF COHERENCE AND INDUCTIVE MODELLING
IN BAYESIAN STATISTICS (with Discussion,1980) Valencia 1
2.**THE PROBABILITY OF FETAL METALOBIC ACIDOSIS DURING
LABOR IN A POPULATION AT RISK AS DETERMINED BY
CLINICAL FACTORS (with Discussion, 1981 with Jim Low et al)
American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology
3 ** Comment on A SIMPLE PREDICTIVE DENSITY FUNCTION (1982)
JASA. Contains a seminal result introducing conditional Laplacian
Approximations into the Bayesian literature. Amazing accuracy was demonstrated by John Hsu
during his subsequent Ph.D. research. Cited by Tierney and Kadane as source reference,
4 AN EMPIRICAL BAYES APPROACH TO THE SMOOTH
ESTIMATION OF UNKNOWN FUNCTIONS (1982) MRC Report
This technical report and my research with Finbarr O'Sullivan initiated a large literature on the
effectively Bayesian smoothing of logistic regression functions, It was adapted by
O'Sullivan, Yandell, and Raynor (JASA 1986)
O'Sullivan, Yandell, and Raynor (JASA 1986)
John Hsu and I were not to publish a fully Bayesian approach to semi-parametric
logistic regression until our paper in Biometrika (1997).
5. AN INFERENTIAL APPROACH TO THE BIOSSAY DESIGN
PROBLEM (1982) MRC Report
6. APPLICATIONS OF THE EM ALGORITHM TO THE
ESTIMATION OF BAYESIAN HYPERPARAMETERS (1982)
MRC Report
7. STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR THE SKEWED NORMAL
AND RELATED DISTRIBUTIONS (1982, with Louis Broekhoven)
MRC Report
8. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO MARKOVIAN MODELS FOR
NORMAL AND POISSON DATA (1982) MRC Report
9. BAYES ESTIMATION OF A MULTIVARIATE DENSITY
(1982) MRC Report
10. SOME PHILOSOPHIES OF INFERENCE AND MODELING
(1983) In Scientific Inference, Robustness and Data Analysis
11 Comment on PARAMETRIC EMPIRICAL BAYES INFERENCE by Carl Morris
(1983)JASA
12. SOME DATA-ANALYTIC MODIFICATIONS TO BAYES-STEIN
ESTIMATION (1984) Ann Inst Statist Math
13 ON BAYES THEOREM, PATERNITY TESTING AND WISCONSIN
LAW (1985) UW Report
14 COMMENT ON THE PAPER BY DIACONIS AND EFRON (1985) Annals of Statistics
15. BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND DIAGNOSTICS FOR THE
THREE PARAMETER LOGISTIC MODEL (1985, with M.R.Novick)
ONR Report, cited in psychometrics literature.
16**. BAYESIAN FULL-RANK MARGINALIZATION FOR TWO-WAY
CONTINGENCY TABLES (1986, with M.R. Novick) JES
Includes analysis of the Marine Corps Data, and Laplacian Approximations,
17 ON THE APPLICATION OF AIC TO BIVARIATE DENSITY
ESTIMATION, NON-PARAMETRIC REGRESSION, AND
DISCRIMINATION (1985, with T. Atilgan) in Multivariate Statistical Modeling
17 ON THE APPLICATION OF AIC TO BIVARIATE DENSITY
ESTIMATION, NON-PARAMETRIC REGRESSION, AND
DISCRIMINATION (1985, with T. Atilgan) in Multivariate Statistical Modeling
and Data Analysis (ed by Bozdogan and Gupta)
18.** BAYESIAN MARGINAL INFERENCE (1989, with John Hsu
ands Kam-Wah Tsui) JASA
18.** BAYESIAN MARGINAL INFERENCE (1989, with John Hsu
ands Kam-Wah Tsui) JASA
This paper got conditional Laplacian approximations right
John and Serene Hsu
DURING 1990s
1. Comment on PREDICTIVE LIKELIHOOD-A REVIEW
(1990, with John Hsu and Kam-Wah Tsui) Statistical Science
2. Commentary on PARENTING PROBABILITY, AN
UNNECESSARY ARTIFACT (1991, by John Wood)
(Reference obscure)
3. **STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR MULTIPLE CHOICE TESTS
(1991, with John Hsu and Kam-Wah Tsui) Psychometrika
4.** BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR A COVARIANCE MATRIX
(1992, with John Hsu) Annals of Statistics
Motivated a large literature e.g. by John Hsu, Marick Sinay, Chih-Wen Hsu, Xinwei Deng, Kam Wah Tsui, Jim Berger and Ruoyong Yang, Manabu Asai and MIcheal McAleer (stochastic volatility models), and Peter Williams (neural networks)
5. BAYESIAN ANALYSIS, AN OVERVIEW
(1992, first ISBA newsletter)
6. THE BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF CATEGORICAL DATA,
A SELECTIVE REVIEW (1994, with John Hsu) In Aspects of Uncertainty:
A Tribute to D.V. Lindley
7. THE LAPLACIAN T-APPROXIMATION IN BAYESIAN INFERENCE
(1994, with John Hsu and Christian Ritter) Statistica Sinica
8. BAYESIAN AND LIKELIHOOD METHODS FROM
EQUALLY WEIGHTED MIXTURES
(1994, with John Hsu et al) Ann Inst Statist Math
9.ON SMALL SAMPLE BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND DESIGN FOR
QUANTAL RESPONSE CURVES (1994,with John Hsu)
In Modeling and Prediction honouring Seymour Geisser
10. AN INVESTIGATION OF HIERARCHICAL BAYES PROCEDURES
IN ITEM RESPONSE THEORY (1994, with S.H. Kim et al)
Psychometrika
UNCONTROLLED DATA (1996) Stat and Prob Letters
12**. THE MATRIX-LOGARITHMIC COVARIANCE MODEL
(1996, with Tom Chiu and Kam-Wah Tsui) JASA
Described as seminal in the Econometrics literature by Asai and McAleer
Applied to spatial processes by Le Sage and Pace (2012) , Le Sage and Pace implemented their extensions on their computer package MESS,
13.**BAYESIAN METHODS FOR VARIANCE COMPONENTS MODELS
(1996, with Li Sun, John Hsu and Irwin Guttman) JASA
14. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION FOR SHIFTED EXPONENTIAL
DISTRIBUTIONS (1996, with M.T, Madi) J Stat Plan Inf.
15 ESTIMATION OF QUANTITIES HANDLED AND BURDEN
OF PROOF ( 1996, with Colin Aitken et al) JRSSA
16 PRONOUNCED CYTOPLASMIC PH GRADIENTS ARE NOT
REQUIRED FOR TIP GROWTH IN PLANT AND FUNGAL CELLS
(1997 with R.M.Parton et al) Journal of Cell Science
18 ** A TWO-ITEM SCREENING QUESTIONNAIRE FOR ALCOHOL
AND OTHER DRUG PROBLEMS (1997, with R.L. Brown et al)
Journal of Family Practice
19**.HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN SEMI-PARAMETRIC PROCEDURES
FOR LOGISTIC REGRESSION. (1997, with John Hsu) Biometrika
Cited in history of Bayesian Categorical Data Analysis
by Hitchcock and Agresti (2005)
20 THE PREVALENCE AND DETECTION OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE
DISORDERS IN PATIENTS OF AGES 18 TO 49
(1998, with R.L. Brown et al) Preventive Medicine
20 THE PREVALENCE AND DETECTION OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE
DISORDERS IN PATIENTS OF AGES 18 TO 49
(1998, with R.L. Brown et al) Preventive Medicine
21, Izenman A. J., Papasouliotis, 0., Leonard, T., and Aitken, C. G. G. (1998).
Bayesian predictive evaluation of measurement error with application to
the assessment of illicit drug quantity.
Technical Report 3, Statistical Laboratory, University of Edinburgh
22.** ONE SLOPE OR TWO? DETECTING STATISTICALLY
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS OF SLOPE IN GEOPHYSICAL DATA
(1999, with Ian Main et al) Geophysical Research Letters
AD 2000 and beyond ( I took time off and then retired early in 2001)
Three joint papers, concerning a statistical approach to radial basis
networks, with International Chess Master Mark Orr and his colleagues in
A.I. are omitted as I did not substantively contribute. They appeared in
the International Journal for Neural Systems (1999, 2000).
The Geophysics patent and two related papers evolved from Chapter 5 of
Orestis Papasouliotis ' Ph.D. thesis The first four chapters of Orestis' thesis
describe his as yet unpublished research, supervised by myself ,on the Bayesian
Analysis of Covariance, with an application in Forensic Psychology.
1. BAYES ESTIMATION WITH UNCERTAIN ORDER CONSTRAINTS
(2000, with M.T.Madi and Kam-Wah Tsui) J Stat Plan Inf
2 A TWO-ITEM CONJOINT SCREEN FOR ALCOHOL AND OTHER
DRUG RELATED PROBLEMS (2001, with R.L.Brown et al)
Journal of the Board of Family Practice
3 ** A BAYESIAN FIXED EFFECTS ANALYSIS OF THE
MANTEL-HAENSZEL MODEL APPLIED TO META ANALYSIS
(2002, with John Duffy) Statistics in Medicine
4. COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION (2003, with O. Papasouliotis)
Encyclopedia of Environmetrics
5.** A POISSON MODEL FOR IDENTIFYING CHARACTERISTIC SIZE
EFFECTS IN FREQUENCY DATA (2001, with O. Papasouliotis and
Ian Main) Journal of Geophysical Research
6 THE SAFARI CAT DATA, PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND
POSSIBLY MONOTONIC POPULATION PROPORTIONS
(2005, with John Hsu) UCSB, Unpublished Manuscript
7 BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR MODEL CHOICE
(2006, with John Hsu) UCSB, Unpublished Manuscript, a bit flawed
8** .LONG RANGE CRITICAL POINT DYNAMICS IN OILFIELD
FLOW RATE DATA (2006, with Ian Main et al)
Geophysical Research Letters
9. HYDROCARBON RECOVERY FROM A HYDROCARBON RESERVOIR
(2006, with Ian Main et al) International Patent
10.** THE STATISTICAL RESERVOIR MODEL: CALIBRATING FAULTS
AND FRACTURES AND PREDICTING RESERVOIR RESPONSE TO
WATER FLOOD (2007, with Ian Main et al) Geological Society London
This and Low et al (1981) are my two best joint applied papers.
They seem to have been seminal in Medicine and in Geophysics. Orestis and I
contributed the key statistical ideas to the Geophysics paper,
13 **INSURANCE MORTALITY RATES., PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND POSSIBLY MONOTONIC POPULATION PROPORTIONS
(with John Hsu) International Journal of Statistics and Probability 2017
14ALL ABOUT ATTENTION DEFICIT DISORDER (2019) Self-published, in preparation.
14ALL ABOUT ATTENTION DEFICIT DISORDER (2019) Self-published, in preparation.
WOW! I HAVE NOW PUBLISHED IN THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNALS FOR 50 YEARS
I have also self-published over 100 poems and published about 10 poems in church publications, the Broughton Spurtle and elsewhere. My short story Joe's Mole (2012) is published in an obscure book.
Tom, aged 67, reading a poem to the 'Blind Poetics'
performance group, in the Blind Poet Bar, Edinburgh
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