ANGELIKA VAN DE LINDE, STATISTICIAN, CO-DEVELOPER OF THE DEVIANCE INFORMATION CRITERION, DIC

 

     Angelika van der Linde was my much valued colleague at the University of Edinburgh during the late 1990s before moving on to a professorial position at the University of Bremen. She is a fine mathematical statistician, perhaps best known for her development  with Spiegelhalter, Best, and Carlin of the Deviance Information Criterion DIC. This widely applied method for choosing between statistical models was developed as a sophisticated approximation to AIC, as developed by my friend Hirotugu Akaike, who spent a year visiting the University of Wisconsin-Madison (1981-82). 

                                                       

                                            My friends Hirotugu and Mituko Akaike
                        
                                 

                                                ANGELIKA'S RESEARCH WORKS

         Angelika has also made pivotal contributions to the theory and application of splines. We still correspond every Christmas,. My best wishes to Angelika and her husband during the pandemic.

Aaron, a poem by Tom Leonard

                                                                        AARON

                                                                by Tom Leonard

                   I AM OF THE RANDOM ONE IN  A THOUSAND

                  WITH AN EXCESS OF CHROMOSONE TWENTY-ONE

                   I ATTRACT EMPATHY

                  AND A UNIVERSAL FEELING OF FAMILY

                   I HAVE A BENT FIFTH FINGER TIP

                  AND A PROPORTIONATELY LARGE TONGUE

                   I ATTEND A SPECIAL SCHOOL IN THE WOODLANDS,

                   WHERE I MEET MY FRIENDS WITH AUTISM

                   DYSPRAXIA AND ADHD.

                   WHEN WE GET BORED WITH THE TEACHER

                    WE GO FOR A WALK AND A CHAT

                   BEYOND THE WATER OF LEITH

                    I AM OFTEN STARVING

                   COS MY FAMILY IN WESTERHAILES

                   CAN'T PAY THE BILLS.

                    BUT THE FOOD PARCELS KEEP TUMBLING INTO MY BLOCK

                    FROM KINDLY SOULS WHO EAT ON THE HOG                               

                    AND THE TIT-BITS PULL ME OUT OF MY FOG.

                     

                     THE GNOME-LIKE HI HEID YIN OF THE  ALMIGHTY

                     SENT US A JOINT OF VENISON FROM THE NEW CLUB LAST WEEK;

                     COST NINETY-SEVEN QUID, THAT IT DID.        

                     HE MUST KNOW THE MEANING OF JESUS'S LOVE,

                     HIGH IN HIS LOFT,

                    ON HIS GILDED PERCH ON PRINCES' STREET,

                     ENTRANCE FEE ELEVEN HUNDRED POUNDS,

                     ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION EIGHT HUNDRED AND FIFTY MORE SMACKERS,

                     MUST BE CLUBBABLE WITH SNOT-RIDDEN MATES.

                     NO TRACKSUITS, TEE-SHIRTS, SHORTS, SPORTS CLOTHES OR TRAINERS.

                    TEACHER'S TEACHING US HOW TO COOK,

                    WHEN WE HAVE THE INGREDIENTS TO MUSTER,

                     AND THAT'S WHAT I WANNA BE WHEN I GROW UP

                    A BIG GRAND CHEF IN A HOTEL IN THE SKY

                    THAT GIVES DELICACIES TO ALL FAR AND NIGH.

                                                     

.

                   

                   

 

THE GREEK ISLAND OF KYTHIRA

 

  

  KYTHIRA---A PROUD, HISTORICAL ISLAND EXPLOITED BY COMMERCIAL INTERESTS

                                                           Venetian Castle

                                                                 KYTHIRA (WIKI)

                                          

                                                                   Chalkos Beach

                              

                                                   Kythira is the most southerly red island

 

                                                               TRAVEL GUIDE

                                                                  ARCHIVES

                                                                  DETAILED HISTORY

                                                                   Cave of Milopotamus

PRE-CLASSICAL AND ANCIENT HISTORY

There are archaeological remains from the Helladic period, contemporary with the Minoans. There is archaeological evidence of Kythiran trade as far as Egypt and Mesopotamia.

Kythira had a Phoenician colony in the early archaic age; the sea-snail which produces Tyrian purple is native to the island.^{[citation needed]}Xenophon refers to a Phoenician Bay in Kythira (Hellenica 4.8.7, probably Avlemonas Bay on the eastern side of the island). The archaic Greek city of Kythira was at Scandea on Avlemonas; its ruins have been excavated. Its acropolis, now Palicastro (Palaeocastron, "Old Fort"), has the temple of Aphrodite Ourania, who may well represent a Phoenician cult of Astarte.

In classical times, Kythira was part of the territory of several larger city-states. Sparta took the island from Argos early in the sixth century, and ruled it under a kytherodíkes (kυθηροδίκης, "judge on Kythira"), in Thucydides' time [4,53,3]; Athens occupied it three times when at war with Sparta (in 456 during her first war with Sparta and the Peloponnesians; from 426 to 410, through most of the great Peloponnesian War; and from 393 to 387/386, during the Corinthian War against Spartan dominance) and used it both to support her trade and to raid Laconia.

Kythira was independent, and issued her own coins in 195 after the Achaean defeat of Sparta. In Augustus' time, it was again subject to Sparta, being the property of Gaius Julius Eurycles, who was both a Spartan magnate and a Roman citizen.

By this time, the Greek cities were in practice subject to the Roman Empire. Kythira continued to exist under the Roman Empire and its Byzantine successor state for centuries. Christianity is attested from the fourth century AD, the time of Constantine; according to her legend, Saint Elessa came from Laconia to convert the island.

                                 

 

BEST THINGS TO DO

Cave of Agia Sophia

ESCAPE TO KYTHIRA

Kapsali, Kythira

TRAVEL AROUND

Mitata

SURVIVAL OF THE PENGUINS a poem by Tom Leonard

                                                    SURVIVAL OF THE PENGUINS

                                                                by Tom Leonard

                          "THE GREAT GOD BRIAN SEAGULL WILL  PROTECT US!"

                    CRIED SANCHO, THE BIG FAT KING EMPEROR,

                     AS THE TSUNAMIS CRASHED TOWARDS THE ANTARCTIC SHORE

                         

                           "FEEL LOVE NOT FEAR!" ENJOINED QUEEN ISABELLA,

                    WHEN  THE METEORITE VAPORISED O'ER THE POLE.

                   

                           "ALL TWENTY MILLION OF US MUST HIDE",

                    DECLARED STATISTICIAN FLOSSY FLO,

                           "IN ATLANTIS BELOW THE ICE,

                            "LEST WE TRAVEL WITH THE HUMANS TO THE STARS."

                    THE MOTHER PENGUINS FROM THE ROOKERY ON BIRD ISLAND

                     GUIDED THEIR YOUNG THROUGH THE LABYRINTH OF PINGU

                      TO THE HIDDEN CITY,

                     WHERE ANCIENT PETRELS STILL FLOURISHED WAY BENEATH.

                      

                      CHILLY WILLY  LED THE WAY FROM HALLEY,

                      FEATHERS MCGRAW NAVIGATED FROM  ROTHERA            ,

                      AND  MUMBLE SLITHERED ALL THE WAY FROM SIGNY.

                      THE HUMANS EVAPORATED IN THEIR SHIVERING BASES

                      IN THE GLOW OF THE METEORITE

                      THAT DESTROYED THE ENTIRE ICECAP,

                      AS THE TEN MILE HIGH TSUNAMIS STRUCK.

                      BUT |ATLANTIS ROSE TO THE SURFACE

                      WHEN THE FURORE SUBSIDED,

                      AND TWELVE TUBE-NOSED, GIANT PETRELS 

                      AND TEN THOUSAND PENGUINS EMERGED

                       INTO THEIR BRAVE,  NEW, HUXLEYIST WORLD

                       WHERE EUGENICS STILL RULED,

                        CARRYING THE BONES OF SANCHO AND ISABELLA

                        ON A SHIP-SHAPED HEARSE. 

                              MAYBE THEY'LL DO BETTER THAN THE  SURVIVING,

                       OMICRON-STRICKEN HOMO SAPIENS ON NEW JERSEY, 

                        THOUGHT THE ONE AND ONLY CREATOR GOD BRIAN SEAGULL,

                        HOVERING IN HIS SEVENTH HEAVEN ABOVE.

                             PERHAPS THEY'LL MATCH THE ORIGINAL HOMINIDS,

                         COMING IN FROM PLANET BORN AGAIN.

                             MOTHER EARTH MAY WELL RECOVER AGAIN.

 

ON SELF DIAGNOSING YOUR EXPECTED TIME TO A FIRST COVID INFECTION by Tom Leonard

                            

Omicron Alert: For a randomly chosen person in Scotland the chance of becoming infected with some sort of Covid on any particular day is currently (10th December 2021) about 1 in 1000 and rising. Please try to assess your own risk. The following procedure may help:

                                             A SIMPLE SELF DIAGNOSTIC TOOL

CONSIDER THE IDEALIZED ASSUMPTIONS THAT ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY  , YOU 

WILL, WITH PROBABILITY  P=1/2000, BE INFECTED WITH COVID, WHERE INFECTIONS 

ON DIFFERENT DAYS ARE TAKEN TO OCCUR INDEPENDENTLY.

       LET   N=NUMBER OF DAYS UNTIL YOUR FIRST INFECTION

      THEN N POSSESSES A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION WHICH IS

    GEOMETRIC WITH PROBABLITY  P=1/2000

      IN PARTICULAR, THE MEAN OR EXPECTATION OF N IS

                                 E(N)= 2000

     

 AND THE STANDARD DEVIATION OF N IS, TO A CLOSE APPROXIMATION

                                

                                ST.DEV. (N)= 2000

IF, FOR EXAMPLE, YOU ARE WORKING IN RETAIL AND YOUR CUSTOMERS ARE NOT

COMPELLED TO WHERE MASKS, THEN THE DAILY PROBABILITY OF INFECTION P

 COULD BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IF YOU ARE WORKING FROM HOME

              

         IF FOR EXAMPLE, P=1/100, THEN YOUR EXPECTED NUMBER OF DAYS TO  FIRST

  INFECTION   IS E(N)=100 WITH APPROXIMATE STANDARD DEV IATION 100.

        IF YOU HAVE BEEN DOUBLY VACCINATED THEN YOU COULD CONSIDER DIVIDING 

YOUR SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF  P  BY  9.  IF P=1/900. THEN E(N)=900 WITH 

APPROXIMATE STANDARD DEVIATION 900.

        THIS PROVIDES A SIMPLE WAY OF THINKING ABOUT YOUR CHANCES OF INFECTION.

       A BASELINE POPULATION VALUE OF P  IS

       P*=  NUMBER OF DAILY INFECTIONS / POPULATION SIZE

       FOR EXAMPLE.,IF THE NUMERATOR AND DENOMINATOR ARE RESPECTIVELY

      3000 AND 6000000,  THEN P*=1/2000

       WHEN SUBJECTIVELY ASSESSING YOUR OWN P YOU COULD C ONSIDER HOW 

MUCH AT RISK YOU ARE RELATIVE TO A RANDOMLY SELECTED MEMBER OF THE 

POPULATION WITH P=P*.

PROBABILITIES FOR GEOMETRIC DISTIBUTION

       NOTE THAT     

      F(n)  = Prob (N>n)  can be calculated as the nth power of 1-P, for your subjective choice of P

        You can therefore easily calculate your probability of not being infected with COVID during the next n days, for any specified value of n 

  (Approximate) Quartiles:  The first or lower (approximate) quartile Q1 of N is the value of n such that F(n)=3/4.                                  

                         Therefore

                                      Q1= log (3/4) / log (1-P).

where log denotes the natural logarithm

                         Similarly, the second (approximate) quartile, or median of N is

                                     Q2= log (1/2)/log (1-P)

  

                          and the third or upper (approximate) quartile of  N is

  

                                     Q3= log (1/4)/log (1-P)

 

                   

                           

         

     

      

  

INDUCTION CEREMONY AT BROUGHTON ST, MARY'S

                                VIDEO OF INDUCTION CEREMONY

SHARED MINISTRY: work collaboratively in covenant with mutual trust and support toward a common vision, a set of goals, and a legacy.

On 2nd  December 2021 we inducted Rev. Laurene Lafontaine as incoming minister at Broughton St. Mary's Parish Church in Edinburgh

                                                                   

Session Clerk or chair of Nominating Committee to be the one person who hands over all the signs while three different people say the words. A small table with a Bible, water in a jug, wine in a chalice, all to be close to where Laurene can stand with a mic. Three readers to be at a distance at anther mic to speak in turn.) 

 

(A Bible is brought to the minister)    

 

Suzanne says: It is through Scripture that we are called to be Christ’s body. Teach us the faith so that we may be true to the Gospel. 

The Minister says: Together may we listen for the Word of God. 

 

The people of the congregation say: In our words and in our lives, may we declare the Good News to all people. 

 

(Water is brought to the minister) 

 

Diane says: By water and the Holy Spirit we are claimed as God’s own. Renew us in our calling as servants of Christ in the world. 

The Minister says: Together may we live out our baptism as a loving community in Christ. 

 

The people of the congregation say: May we nurture one another in faith, uphold one another in prayer, and encourage one another in service. 

 

(A communion cup is brought to the minister) 

 

Tom says:  In celebrating Holy Communion, we know Christ present among us. Gather us round the Table that we may be united as his Body. 

The Minister says:  Together may we celebrate the Meal of the Kingdom. 

 

The people of the congregation say: We shall be always ready to meet Christ in this place and to show in our lives the promise of his reconciliation.

During the reception after the induction, I read my poem REACHING OUT, to welcome Rev. Lafontaine. Laurene was well received by a highly convivial congregation, and people seemed to like the poem

                                       

 

SCARY POLITICS IN THE SOLOMON ISLANDS

ACCORDING TO VIJAY PRASHAD (THREAD READER 26 NOV 2021) A dangerous situation is afoot in the Solomon Islands. A coup is on with the government of Manasseh Sogavare threatened with overthrow by a revolt in Malaita, pushed by the U.S. and Australia Australian troops have arrived in Honeira, the capital of the Solomon Islands. PM Scott Morrison says that they will only be there for ‘weeks’. We shall see. This intervention has been planned for years, since Solomon Islands recognized Beijing over Taipei in September 2019. When Sogavare switched his link to China, the U.S., driven by Marco Rubio, and other violators of international sovereignty, built a coalition of anti-communists and pro-Zionist Christians. See the Israeli flag held by those making the coup

      WHILE I'M BY NO MEANS A MARXIST, PROFESSOR PRASAD'S VIEWPOINT SEEMS TO MAKE GOOD SENSE. WHY ELSE WOULD THE AUSTRALIANS BE INTERFERING? THEY HAVE A HORRIFIC HISTORICAL: REPUTATION e.g. BECAUSE OF THEIR ABUSE OF INDIGENOUS PEOPLE IN AUSTRALIA AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS, THEIR ABUSE OF ORPHANS FROM BRITAIN, AND THEIR ABUSE OF THEIR OWN LGBT PEOPLE. WHY SHOULD THIS BE ANY DIFFERENT?

                                                             VIJAY PRASHAD (WIKI)

                                                                     by UNCTAD

                                                        SOLOMON ISLANDS (WIKI)

Post-conflict era[edit]

Kemakeza remained in office until April 2006, when he lost the 2006 Solomon Islands general election and Snyder Rini became PM. However allegations that Rini had used bribes from Chinese businessmen to buy the votes of members of Parliament led to mass rioting in the capital Honiara, concentrated on the city's Chinatown area. A deep underlying resentment against the minority Chinese business community led to much of Chinatown in the city being destroyed.^[81] Tensions were also increased by the belief that large sums of money were being exported to China. China sent chartered aircraft to evacuate hundreds of Chinese who fled to avoid the riots.^{[citation needed]} Evacuation of Australian and British citizens was on a much smaller scale.^{[citation needed]} Additional Australian, New Zealand and Fijian police and troops were dispatched to try to quell the unrest. Rini eventually resigned before facing a motion of no-confidence in Parliament, and Parliament elected Manasseh Sogavare as Prime Minister.^[82][83]

Sogavare struggled to assert his authority and was also hostile to the Australian presence in the country; after one failed attempt, he was removed in no confidence vote in 2007 and replaced by Derek Sikua of the Solomon Islands Liberal Party.^[84] In 2008 a Truth and Reconciliation Commission was established to examine and help heal the wounds of the 'tension' years.^[85][86] Sikua lost the 2010 Solomon Islands general election to Danny Philip, though after a vote of no confidence in him following allegations of corruption, Philip was ousted and replaced by Gordon Darcy Lilo.^[87][88] Sogavare returned to power after the 2014 election, and oversaw the withdrawal of RAMSI forces from the country in 2017.^[74] Sogavare was ousted in a no confidence vote in 2017, which saw Rick Houenipwela come to power, however Sogavare returned to the Prime Ministership after winning the 2019 election, sparking rioting in Honiara.^[89][90] In 2019 Sogavare announced that the Solomons would be switching recognition from Taiwan to China.^[91][92]

In November 2021 there was mass rioting and unrest.^[93]